Sam Akaki asks if South Africa could be the next victim of violence and civil strife as poverty spreads across an entire continent
EXCEPT, perhaps, for Charles Gray, the former High Commissioner to Kenya, many British Government officials would have laughed if someone had suggested on Christmas Eve 2007 that Kenya was about to explode in flames and be drenched in blood because of deepening poverty. After all, numerous gap-year students and tourists who spend short periods there and become instant experts on Africa had always assured them that Kenya was an island of peace and stability in a sea of perennial turmoil.
But Kenya today is no laughing matter. In January, it moved perilously close to becoming another Rwanda when more than 1,000 men, women and children were hacked to death or burned while seeking refuge in churches. More than 500,000 were displaced from their homes
Thanks to the efforts of Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations, who spent a month trying to broker peace, opposing politicians are now debating constitutional changes to address the underlying inequality and landlessness which led to the worst violence since the Mau Mau rebellion of the 1950s.
But any constitutional changes may be too late to save Kenya. Already, near the Kenya-Uganda border, the Kenya army is engaged in bloody gunfights with several heavily-armed militia groups, including the Sabaot Land Defence Forces, More-land Forces and the Political Revenge Movement. Land and revenge are the common objectives of the rebels.
The violence in Kenya is appalling, but not surprising. Article 25 of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights states: “Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care.” None of these is available to the majority of Kenyans.
South Africans, too, are facing the same problems. In a BBC Panorama programme, “No More Mandelas”, shown on February 11 this year, Fergal Keane highlighted what many would rather sweep under the carpet. “My sense is that many in the international community have taken South Africa’s post-apartheid stability for granted. We have failed to observe the politics closely or analyse the exact nature of the economic stability that has been achieved. Look a little closer and the cracks emerging in society are profoundly worrying.”
Keane continued: “While the ANC government worked hard to maintain economic stability and growth, precious little of the new wealth has made its way to the poor. In fact, one study by the Institute of Race Relations estimates that the number of people living on less than a dollar a day has doubled since the end of apartheid.”
He concluded: “Wealth remains in the hands of the white minority and emerging black elite, many of whose members have close connections with the ruling party. I believe this disenchantment goes a long way towards explaining the rise of Jacob Zuma.”
In fact, Zuma is facing campaigns on several fronts to stop him succeeding Thabo Mbeki as South Africa’s president, despite his resounding victory to become ANC president at the party’s national conference in Polokwane in December last year.
The National Prosecuting Authority chief, Mokotedi Mpshe, is reportedly briefing journalists that the investigation into corruption charges against Zuma are complete and there is enough evidence for the case to go to trial.
Even Nobel Peace Prize-winner Archbishop Desmond Tutu has publicly stated he does not want “our country to be ruled by someone we would be ashamed of” – referring to Zuma’s acquittal on charges of raping an HIV-positive woman.
South Africa could follow Kenya and explode in flames if Zuma is convicted and condemned to prison, thus disqualifying him from becoming state president. South Africa’s fall to communal violence would not just mean another failed state in Africa. It would mean a failed continent.
Already, from the Sudan in the north, to Zimbabwe in the south, to Kenya and Uganda in the east, the Ivory Cost in the west and the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chad in the centre, Africa is marked by a vicious cycle of wars, poverty, disease and famine. There has been an exodus of refugees.
The problems are not the result of lack of development funds. Since African independence, Britain and other Western nations have given more than £300 billion and substantially reduced or written-off mountains of debts.
Moreover, Britain and others have launched a number of poverty-reduction initiatives: the New Partnership for Africa’s Development, the Africa Commission and its successor, the Africa Progress Panel, and the UN Millennium Development Goals, which promise to reduce absolute poverty by half by 2015.
These there is little chance these goals will be achieved on time. And, in spite of these initiatives, Africa is becoming poorer, hungrier, angrier and more violent.
The chronic lack of independent state institutions is crucial. In almost every African country, the president is also the supreme institution of the state, personally controlling the judiciary, parliament, the army, police, state intelligence and security services and the civil service.
Sadly, the subject of Africa is only prominent when it comes to events such as World AIDS Day and the G8 meetings where politicians make lofty speeches about reducing poverty and attack Robert Mugabe’s record on human rights.
If Britain were serious about human rights, it would not return Zimbabwean or Darfurian asylum seekers to the hell which their countries have become. Nor would they have allowed President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda to host the Commonwealth conference in 2007 and become its chairman for the next two years. The International Court of Justice found Uganda guilty of committing war crimes in the Democratic Republic of Congo and imposed a fine of £5 billion.
The important role that independent state institutions could play in reducing poverty cannot be over-emphasised. They would have the capacity for managing and directing meagre local and foreign resources to implement strategies to eradicate extreme poverty and strive for universal primary education; promote gender equality, empower women, improve maternal health and reduce child mortality; combat HIV and malaria; ensure environmental sustainability and negotiate for fair trade; fight corruption and protect fundamental human rights and organise free and fair elections.
Kenya exploded because the Electoral Commission fiddled with the final presidential votes. South Africa could follow suit, if Zuma is prevented from becoming state president. Britain could still help to save Africa from falling apart by putting less emphasis on exporting democracy and using some of the £76 billion which would be spent on replacing Trident nuclear weapons to help build the independent institutions which are so critical for the reduction of poverty.
Sam Akaki is director of Democratic Institutions for Poverty Reduction in Africa
