Ipsos-MORI’s Roger Mortimore analyses what the results really mean and points to what may lie ahead

Chances are that if it had been a general election on 1 May, David Cameron would be Prime Minister,. with a working majority.

The Conservatives’ share of the vote was 44 per cent, their best level since 1992. Labour slipped to third place on just 24 per cent, worse than at any of the elections under Tony Blair’s leadership. (The party was steady on a 26 per cent share in 2004, 2006 and 2007.) Even allowing for the way that local elections always flatter the Conservatives because they benefit from the lower turnout, the LibDems always doing better in local elections than general elections, and even taking into account the advantage Labour currently derives from the vagaries of first-past-the-post, a lead of this scale would translate to a Tory General Election victory with plenty of room to spare.

As bleak a view for Labour is given by the roll-call of councils won and lost. Labour controls 9 fewer councils than it did before the elections, and made a net loss of more than 300 seats, which seems to have exceeded the leadership’s worst nightmares; the Tories gained around 250 councillors and 12 councils. The Conservative gains speak of advances in the marginal-rich urban North (Bury) and in some of Labour’s remaining footholds in the South (Southampton). Labour’s losses show a party in deep trouble - even in its own heartlands (Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Hartlepool).

The Liberal Democrats’ picture is more mixed. True, they pushed Labour into third place, but they made few net gains and their 25 per cent share is lower than the 27 per cent they were achieving at mid-term in the last Parliament. If at the next election the Tories rather than Lib Dems reap the benefit of Labour’s unpopularity, they risk being squeezed, especially in “naturally” Tory areas. But this is a very early stage in Nick Clegg’s leadership, and the jury is still out.

Boris Johnson’s defeat of Ken Livingstone in London made headlines round the world. Certainly London is the sole local election capable of gaining even national attention in its own right.

Johnson’s record as Mayor in the two years we must now assume remain until the next general election may have a significant impact on its result. He will be the highest profile Tory in office anywhere in Britain. His similarity of age and background to David Cameron make it inevitable that any success or failure will rub off on the public image of his leader. Johnson represents the Conservatives’ greatest opportunity to establish their credentials for governing, though at the same time, their greatest risk should he prove not up the job.

The importance to Johnson’s victory of the high turnout in Tory areas, with a bigger swing since 2004 than nationally, points towards the resurrection of an effective Conservative campaigning machine. The Tories, led by Lynton Crosby’s firm hand, got their vote out so effectively that Johnson had as many first preference votes in 2008 as his predecessor Steven Norris had mustered in the previous two elections combined. Labour, which now has barely half as many council seats as when Tony Blair became Prime Minister, is suffering from weakness at the grass roots which will count against the party at the general election.

Labour can no longer rely on voters doubting Tory credibility; it must put forward a positive case for re-election. In April’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor poll, Gordon Brown recorded a lower personal satisfaction rating (23 per cent) than his government (26 per cent),  which has never previously happened, even to Margaret Thatcher. He still has two years, but he must turn things round, fast.

Roger Mortimore is Director of Political Analysis, Ipsos MORI