News analysis: The future isn’t Orange as coalition collapses

UKRAINE’S pro-Western ruling coalition collapsed last week amid increasing tension over a reinvigorated Russia determined to preserve its predominance in the territories of the former Soviet Union.

by Tribune Web Editor
Sunday, September 14th, 2008

by Marcus Papadopoulos

UKRAINE’S pro-Western ruling coalition collapsed last week amid increasing tension over a reinvigorated Russia determined to preserve its predominance in the territories of the former Soviet Union.

The Orange coalition, which comprised President Viktor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine Party and the Tymoshenko bloc led by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, fell apart following a vote in the Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, in which lawmakers from the pro-Russian opposition, the Party of Regions, the Communist Party and the prime minister’s bloc voted to reduce the powers of the president, including his

veto on prime ministerial candidates.

Speaking to the nation live on television after his party had withdrawn from the coalition, President Yushchenko said: “A political and constitutional coup has begun in parliament. The democratic majority has been betrayed. The collapse was a well-planned event.”

Although tension began brewing between the two former Orange allies late last year

when President Yushchenko reappointed Mrs Tymoshenko as prime minister, the trigger for the government’s collapse was Russia’s war with

Georgia this summer.

President Yushchenko was vociferous in his support for Georgia and its leader, Mikheil Saakashvili, and flew to Tbilisi to stand in solidarity with the Georgians.

However, Prime Minister Tymoshenko refused to criticise the Russian military campaign in South Ossetia and condemned President Yushchenko’s position concerning Moscow as heedlessly antagonistic.

Prime Minister Tymoshenko, once a gas oligarch, gained a reputation in politics as having a hardline stance towards Russia. However, it appears that her views have recently become more circumspect. While she did sign a letter to Nato requesting a membership action plan for Ukraine (the forerunner to membership of the alliance), she has since backed away from the idea. And her decision to meet Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin later this month may be indicative of a change of policy towards Russia.

President Yushchenko has accused her of “treason” and of having the backing of the Kremlin. Accusations of this kind could intensify should Mrs Tymoshenko’s bloc form an alliance with the pro-Russian Party of Regions, led by her former adversary Viktor Yanukovych. The latter has not ruled out this possibility.

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