by Jim Mallory
CANADA’S Conservatives may well have blown their chances of getting the majority government they crave when the country goes to the polls next Tuesday (October 14).
Favourable polls and a divided opposition looked like delivering the extra 28 seats Prime Minister Stephen Harper needed when he called the election last month, although Canadians often punish minority governments which go to the country simply to gain a majority.
The Tories were then on 40 per cent, enough to win an overall majority of 155 seats, particularly with the Liberals trailing badly on 26 per cent, and the left-wing New Democrats and French-based Bloc Quebecois support holding up. However, latest polling sees the Conservatives slipping to 34 per cent with the NDP and thinly-spread Greens making the biggest strides.
The Tories have ruled since January 2006, when they ended 15 years of Liberal rule, aided by the other parties’ fear of triggering an election through a no-confidence motion in the House of Commons.
What’s happened? The Tories have run a complacent campaign, their appeal relying on the Liberals’ continued unpopularity. They also hoped to strike before things got worse – particularly where it hurts people most on jobs, savings and the cost of living.
Mr Harper’s “do nothing” approach in the face of a worldwide economic crisis does not address voters’ real economic fears about cuts in their life savings and the prospect of working extra years for a decent pension – and that’s for those still in a job.
The fact that no Canadian bank has yet gone to the wall masks weaknesses in Canada’s finances, particularly through its links to the United States. Jobs are disappearing in the lumber industry which is dependent on the recession-hit American housing market. Car manufacturing plants are closing as the automobile industry suffers in the wake of the spike in the price of oil and the loss of exports south of the border.
Mr Harper is under fire from the NDP in British Columbia, where his lumber deal with the US has restricted exports. He may not make the anticipated advances in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, where much of the car and other big manufacturing industries are.
In addition, the gains he needs in Quebec may have been sacrificed with the Tories’ cuts in arts grants, attacked as hitting the French cultural heritage by the Bloc Quebecois – who have rejuvenated their French electoral base – and Liberals, who have yet to regain their support in Quebec.
Instead, the government has attacked the Liberals’ Green Shift, an ambitious plan to balance a carbon tax with income tax cuts, which the Tories say will cost billions and create “political tensions”.
Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, a former environment minister, argues that taxing greenhouse emissions will avoid Canada being punished through international tariffs on energy exports. Mr Harper’s withdrawal of support from the Kyoto agreement has drawn heavy criticism from all parties.
The Liberals’ plans may not resonate as voters turn away from green policies when times are tough, a fate the Greens will also suffer. Dion’s “charisma deficit” is also cited as contributing to Liberal woes, although a more likely reason is a lack of trust dating from their long stay in office, most effectively exploited by NDP leader Jack Layton.
The New Democrats have jumped in the polls by pledging to reverse the Tories’ corporate tax cuts, and commit extra resources for child allowances, education and health. They’ve also promised to pull Canadian troops out of Afghanistan.
The election may turn on the size of the NDP vote. A big vote could leave the Conservatives still with a minority, or might simply cut into Liberal support, resulting in too many split votes and the Tories being the ultimate beneficiaries.
