Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah argues that a crude focus on immigration figures in any one year misunderstands the economic facts and plays into the hands of xenophobes
LAST week’s news that net immigration into the United Kingdom was 237,000 in 2007 – the second highest intake since records began – was used by many to argue that something dramatic needs to be done to restrict immigration, especially during a recession.
As usual, the anti-immigration lobby wheeled out its well-rehearsed lines about foreigners equivalent to cities the size of Birmingham swamping Britain. But the xenophobes have been joined recently by more sensible voices. Labour MP Frank Field and Tory MP Nicholas Soames led the call for “balanced migration”, in which the numbers of people coming in would equal the numbers of people going out. Phil Woolas, the new immigration minister, promised to do his utmost to control immigration so that it doesn’t contribute to unfettered population growth. Yet all of them make the fundamental mistake of thinking that the next decade’s migration patterns will look just like the last.
There is no denying that there has been unprecedented migration in recent years. Over the last decade, some 2.5 million foreign nationals have immigrated to this country, while some 750,000 British nationals left, contributing to the 5.5 million-strong British diaspora.
But migration ebbs and flows over time. Net immigration increased substantially when the economy was booming and is likely to slow naturally as the economy slows. Even before the economy started to falter, new arrivals were down (gross arrivals in 2007 were lower than 2006). Early indications suggest that inflows have slowed substantially in 2008. National Insurance registrations for foreigners in the first half of 2008 were down by 13 per cent on the first half of 2007. Worker arrivals from the European Union’s new member states this summer were a third down on summer 2007. Surveys of eastern Europeans in Britain suggest most never planned on staying here permanently and many will be moving home or elsewhere as Britain becomes less attractive economically.
If previous downturns are anything to go by, fewer migrants will head to Britain and more disgruntled Brits (and immigrants) will leave in search of greener pastures elsewhere. Indeed, the last few recessions have led to net emigration as more people actually left this country than arrived.
Unfortunately, those who warn about a population time bomb conveniently forget that many migratory flows tend to be flexible and cyclical. Worse, these myths seem to have found their way into Government thinking, if we believe reports of numerical caps on immigration being introduced.
In many ways, the lurch towards a more restrictionist approach to immigration shows how troubling Labour has found the issue. This is especially disappointing because, rather than engaging in defensive tough talk, the Government could be highlighting its successes. The overwhelming majority of recent immigrants have come for very legitimate reasons – because they were needed as workers in public services or the private sector, as international students, as dependents of British nationals, as EU nationals or to seek protection.
Moreover, by bringing in foreign workers at a time when the labour market needed them desperately, the Government kept the economy dynamic and was able to expand key public services rapidly. Allowing new EU member state nationals to work in Britain was also a brave demonstration of a commitment to European integration.
And the Government’s flexible approach to immigration means that, just as immigration helped the economy on the way up, it may help on the way down by correcting itself and by enabling us to access the skills and people who might help drive a recovery.
A crude focus on the total numbers of immigrants arriving in one year ignores the history of migration and misunderstands the legitimate reasons why immigration has boomed in recent years. It also risks further demonising the immigrants who contribute so much to Britain.
Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah is acting deputy director and head of migration research at the Institute for Public Policy Research
