by David Mills
THE increase in the Conservative lead in a series of opinion polls will have made grim reading for Labour MPs this week, but one glimmer of a silver lining was the fact that the Tory advance appears to have come at the cost of the Liberal Democrats.
Had the Lib Dems not already dispensed with the services of two leaders since the last general election, their performance might have triggered speculation about Nick Clegg’s future. The fact that it hasn’t is perhaps a recognition on the part of Lib Dem MPs that, as so often when political events are driven by events – in this case, global economic problems – they tend to drift out of public consciousness, crowded out by the other parties and more compelling stories.
Vince Cable has emerged as a prominent voice in the economic debate, but somehow, despite being deputy leader of his party, his contributions don’t seem to be recognised as emerging from the Lib Dems and translating into public support for the party – something which must concern their leadership.
Most observers agree that the day-to-day news agenda will continue to be dominated by economic events, both at home and abroad, and until the US fiscal stimulus is delivered and starts to have an effect, the balance of these stories will continue to be negative.
But what is not clear yet is whether voters have reached a settled political opinion on the economic situation. Optimists – and in the current climate, the phrase is used in a relative sense – would point to the forthcoming Budget and the G20 to provide punctuation points for the Government to turn round political opinion.
As well as dealing with these events, senior ministers will be hoping to get a chance to put across the Labour Party’s medium-term vision for Britain. This week’s child poverty announcement and the earlier push on social mobility have given Labour MPs and activists something to talk about on the doorsteps in the run-up to the next general election, and in the elections this June, though in the current economic climate, they will have a challenge on their hands convincing voters to look beyond the present situation to the medium and long-term. Shifting the attention of MPs and activists will be equally important.
Some might be tempted to think that this week’s polls mark a decisive turning point in the political battle ahead of the next election. Yet this Parliament has already seen more than its share of extraordinary political twists and turns, from the demise of two Lib Dem leaders, Tony Blair’s departure, the election-that-never-was, Boris Johnson’s victory in London, and the global economic crisis, to the return of Peter Mandelson and Kenneth Clarke to frontline politics in this country, not to mention the rise of Barack Obama and all that will mean for British politics.
It would be a brave pundit or politician who said that the next 15 months is likely to be plain sailing – for any of the major parties or their leaders.
