Kailash Chand says uncertainty is a safe prediction as the world’s biggest democracy approaches an election
INDIAN democracy is an enigma for many in the world outside. The dates of the next general election in India have yet to be declared. However, there are strong signs that the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) may be dissolved within weeks, with elections held as early as April.
An Indian general election inevitably encompasses several diverse and confusing factors and socio-political cross currents. The Republic of India is the world’s seventh largest country, in terms of geographical area. It has the climatic extremes of the snow-clad Himalayas in the north, the lush green coastal Kerala in the south, the rain-fed forests of Seven Sisters in the east and the scorching sands of Rajasthan on its western flank.
More significantly, India is the second most populous country in the world, with a mind-boggling diversity of languages, religions, ethnicity, culture, dress and culinary traditions. The country is divided into 25 states and seven union territories (directly governed by the central government). All the states and the union territories of Delhi, Goa and Punducherry have elected governments. The remaining four union territories have centrally-appointed administrators. The states and union territories are further divided into 602 districts in order to facilitate administration. To have sustained a functioning democracy with all its flaws for more than 60 years in a country of more than a billion people who speak scores of different languages is something of a miracle.
In the past 15 years, India has pulled more people out of poverty than in the preceding 50 – averaging some 10 million people a year in the past decade. The country has prospered visibly. Despite the population growth, the per capita income has grown considerably in each of the past 15 years – more than ever before.
On the technological front, India launches its own satellites and last year sent Chandrayan, a state-of-the-art spacecraft, to the moon. It also boasts of a massive cinema industry, which every year churns out several of the world’s most widely-watched films.
Slumdog Millionaire, which this week swept all before it at the Oscars, has captured so many imaginations because it accurately depicts the defining contrast of Indian poverty in slums and the amazing riches in its metropolitan towns.
There remain vast areas of India where the rulers’ indifference, incompetence and callousness have left wounds unhealed. Short-sighted as many in power have been, they have preferred to pursue personal and partisan ends rather than act in the public interest. The result has been a decline in the quality of democracy and governance promised in the constitution.
During the past 61 years of India’s existence as an independent nation, it was ruled for many of them by the Congress Party, led by the Nehru/Gandhi family. Since 1991, no single political party has been able to muster a parliamentary majority on its own, leading to a series of multi-party coalition governments. The current Congress Party and United Progressive Alliance-led government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is a 20-party conglomerate. It succeeded a 23-party collation led by the National Democratic Alliance with Atal Bihari Vajpayee of the Bhartiya Janata Party as Prime Minister.
When the results of the next general election are finally declared, no one doubts that the first challenge will be to cobble together another coalition. Both Congress and the BJP will work hard to stitch up alliances with dozens of smaller regional parties, which are bound to be represented in the parliament and highly likely to play crucial role in tilting the balance one way or the other.
Congress is having big problems in promoting its prime ministerial candidate. The present Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, who is 77 and convalescing after open-heart surgery, is opposed by senior party heavyweights. Meanwhile, party president Sonia Gandhi is openly rooting for him. Congress bigwigs are cunningly projecting Rahul Gandhi, the fourth generation scion of the first family, as the leader of young party aspirants. This is an apparent ploy a to weaken his mother’s resolve in her support of Manmohan Singh.
At any rate, the process of infusing young blood into the government did take off some time ago, when a number of those belonging to the inner coterie surrounding Rahul Gandhi were made ministers in the present government. It should not surprise anyone if Rahul Gandhi assumes the same crown as her forefathers sooner than later. But if Sonia Gandhi really has immediate ambitions for her son, she is playing things very close to her chest.
Besides these elements of uncertainty, a majority of current Congress cabinet ministers are septuagenarians and their capacity to withstand the rigours of another five-year term is questionable. This casts a shadow over the electoral prospects of the whole Congress Party. While Manmohan Singh enjoys an unsullied reputation of competence and rectitude, Sonia Gandhi’s inherent temptation to promote her son, no matter how subtly, has prompted allegations of nepotism and the perpetuation of dynastic rule.
However, Rahul Gandhi’s performance in the recent regional election campaigns has failed to inspire confidence in the electorate. Further, Sonia Gandhi’s reputation for dealing with party allies has never been strong and there is a risk that, even if Congress consolidates its electoral position, desertions from the UPA could still leave it high and dry – and short of a majority in the Lok Sabha.
Much the same applies to the BJP, whose NDA supporters have been reduced from 24 members at the last general election to a paltry six as of now. Former Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani, an octogenarian, is the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, but his attempts to keep the Hindu zealots under check, have put him at odds with the Sangh Parivar (“family”) and other Hindu hardliners, which have been BJP’s main props.
Thus the core support of the BJP is getting shaky. However, some in the party are pinning their hopes on the charisma of second-rung leaders such as Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, who has an almost legendary status in his own zone of influence. But his role in the Gujarat riots of 2002 tarnished his image, both nationally and internationally. Meanwhile, the BJP’s poor electoral performance in the recently concluded elections in Rajasthan and Delhi has dampened the enthusiasm of party workers. While the Mumbai terrorist attack in November last year could still lead to a reduction in Congress’ share of the vote, another consequence is that serious questions have been raised about Advani ’s leadership.
The problems inside the main national parties could result in gains for the Third Front, which includes the regional bases of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M; CPI in West Bengal and Kerala) and some splinter groups. However, a similar link-up, the United Front government of 1996-98, did not succeed without either of the two national parties, Congress and the BJP.
After the forthcoming general election, a hung parliament is a near certainty, creating a situation where fluid loyalties could carry any one of the three cross-party alliances into government. Thus the race for power should be characterised by political uncertainties, hard bargaining and new groupings, where two influential regional parties: Mayawati’s BSP and Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party, could be decisive if they have the requisite strength.
The fact is that an acute economic downturn, mounting terrorist attacks and international tensions would pose innumerable problems for any multi-party government and test its resilience. In India, the challenge to produce a strong government is even greater.
Kailash Chand is a Manchester-based GP
