REPUBLICANS might just trump Northern Ireland’s Unionists in June’s crucial European elections. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that nationalists could win two of the north of Ireland’s three seats in the European Parliament. And if similar results were seen at Westminster’s 2010 general election and the Northern Ireland Assembly elections scheduled for the following year, Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams could see his dream of a united Ireland by 2016 become a reality.
For two republican MEPs to be elected this summer will require both a massive turnout and well-disciplined tactical voting on the part of Northern Ireland’s Roman Catholics. The Unionist vote will be divided between veteran Ulster Unionist Party MEP Jim Nicholson, the Democratic Unionist Party’s Diane Dodds and sitting Traditional Unionist Voice MEP Jim Allister. For the nationalist to triumph will depend on an evenly split unionist vote, as well as considerable apathy among the Protestant middle class. All it would take is tactical voting by Protestants – especially by Orangemen – either away from Allister or by choosing to give the DUP a bloody nose for forming a coalition government with Sinn Fein at Stormont and the republicans are likely to be stymied.
At least the choice of Euro candidate should not be a problem for Sinn Fein or the Social Democratic and Labour Party. Sinn Fein has opted for former Stormont health minister Bairbre de Brun, while the SDLP is thinking smart with its selection of former Belfast Lord Mayor Alban Maginness.
Even if Protestants swallow DUP sabre-rattling about de Brun topping the poll, there is still no guarantee that a second victorious nationalist would not be sent to Brussels. In order to build a solid pan-nationalist front, Sinn Fein will have to put some more distance on the Northern Ireland executive between itself and the DUP. The perception in some republican strongholds that Sinn Fein is little more than the DUP’s Assembly lapdog is starting to grow bigger than a mere nasty whisper.
The “Chuckle Brothers” relationship between Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness may have ended when the former quit as First Minister, but McGuinness and Paisley’s successor, Peter Robinson, are certainly no “Brothers Grim”. In fact, they are more like cosy cousins, because the coalition currently shows no signs of collapsing.
Provided that de Brun and Alban don’t do or say anything stupid, the pan-nationalist front could be back in business. It will need to attract support from the Greens and put the political boot into dissident republicans.
If the dissidents don’t put up a strong runner, they could still damage Sinn Fein by orchestrating a boycott of the elections, resurrecting the “Don’t vote at all” strategy.
Any pan-nationalist front should not make the mistake modelling itself on Protestant republican John Turnly’s old Irish Independence Party. That would be too dark a shade of green for many moderate middle-class Catholics.
MEANWHILE, 2009 is likely to be a crunch year for Irish Christians. If churches across Ireland cannot re-assert their political and moral influence, they risk turning into little more than Sunday morning hobby clubs.
This year sees the 150th anniversary of the Great Spiritual Revival, which began in the province of Ulster in 1859 and gradually spread across the whole island. The revival had a big impact on both Protestants and Catholics, with tens of thousands of people becoming “saved” and opting to describe themselves as “born-again believers”. Old-fashioned liberals and stuffy conservatives were pushed aside by a new breed of enthusiastic evangelicals. But the most significant influence of the revival was on the huge numbers of young people who joined churches and chapels. It was a far cry from today, when going to Sunday worship or even having a Christian faith is seen by many younger people as “not cool” or even as a sign of bigotry.
Still, there may now be a danger that revival celebrations will descend into a fundamentalist rampage if the “happy-clappy brigade” uses it as an excuse to take Bible-bashing to a new level. The recent past offers some salutary lessons. In the 1990s, the notorious “Toronto Blessing” saw many people in Protestant pews clucking like chickens. A decade later, Irish Catholicism and Protestantism had to fight off a recruitment drive from so-called faith healers from the “Florida Outpouring”. These “healers” claimed they could cure all sorts of illnesses and even raise the dead.
This year, for Irish Catholics, revival celebrations could herald the most important changes since Pope John
Paul II’s visit in 1979. For Protestants, it could mean the biggest realignment for half a century, determining which of two dozen or so denominations become dominant voices. Forms of worship will have a significant role in the battle for influence in churches. Traditionalists want a return to old-style hymns and psalms. Modernisers want rock-style dancing in the aisles, hand-waving and a foot-stomping racket. If the traditionalists prevail, a by-product could be greater co-operation between Catholic and Protestant evangelicals. If the happy-clappies have their way, the consequence could be religion as a laughing stock and churches divided the length and breadth of the island of Ireland.
