NO ONE in Ireland wants another 40 years of bloodshed. Now is the time for the Dail and Westminster governments to speak to those who represent dissident republicans – either directly or through backdoor channels. But they need to move fast. Ireland cannot endure another conflict. In the early 1970s, the British flew leading Provisionals to England for secret talks, but it was to be two decades before the Provos’ ceasefire in 1994.
Are we expected to wait until 2029 before dissident republicans declare a ceasefire? If Israel can talk to jihadists in Hamas and Hezbollah, then Britain, Dublin and even Stormont can initiate a discussion with various factions comprising the dissident republican movement.
What needs to be established is precisely what the dissidents are fighting for. Is it another “Brits out” terror war? Is it to allow dissident gangs to flex their muscles over who controls Ireland’s lucrative criminal empires or is it simply to embarrass Sinn Fein?
The dissidents’ terror tactics may be to have a number of separate groups to confuse the police and MI5, but they need to speak with one voice and they need competent negotiators to put their case.
The message to dissident republicans should be: “Let’s talk. This terror conflict is not like the 1970s. You don’t enjoy the majority support of the republican family. You won’t have southern politicians calling for defence forces to mobilise along the border or offering any help to your hardline units.”
This time, Dublin and London are united in condemning the terror campaign. Dissidents can negotiate an honourable truce, but the clock is ticking and patience is wearing thin. Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness stood alongside Northern Ireland police chief Hugh Orde and described those responsible for the latest atrocities “traitors”. That’s just one step away from mainstream republicans turning a blind eye to the SAS and Dublin’s anti-terrorism units rooting them out.
If the dissidents won’t call a ceasefire now, they must at least say who to talk to about negotiating one. Is it Republican Sinn Fein, the 32 County Sovereignty Movement, the Irish Republican Socialist Party or someone else?
A leading dissident republican told me that the plan is to continue with the terrorist campaign in the north of Ireland. This chilling message was issued by a strategist for the group Oglaigh na hEireann – one of five organisations comprising the dissident republican movement.
The main death squad fronting the dissidents is the Real IRA. Eleven years ago, a no-warning Real IRA bomb killed 31 people, including unborn twins, in Omagh. This was in August 1998, a few months after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement.
The other major player is the Continuity IRA. Three other organisations comprise the dissident terrorists: Oglaigh na hEireann, the INLA and the Irish Republican Liberation Army. But my dissident source poured cold water on speculation that the recent attacks would bring the various dissident groups together under a single banner.
He said: “This has been a weakness in republicanism before. The British got around the Provisionals because they were self-contained. There will be co-operation between the various groups. But any person who suggests coming together under one organisation will be viewed with suspicion. At the moment, the Real IRA is dictating the pace, with the Continuity IRA following behind.” He emphasised that the dissident republicans’ campaign of terror will go on and would be stepped up, depending on materials and funds.
And in spite of widespread cross-community vigils and rallies against the recent murders, he added: “We did get what we wanted. The three attacks were as much a go at Sinn Fein as the crown forces. In spite of what is being claimed in the media, we are under no pressure from our own community. The groups which carried out the attacks are thought of as heroes.
“We have heard all the propaganda from Sinn Fein. This didn’t do us one bit of harm. The attacks were carried out to oppose the Provisionals. Support for Sinn Fein has slumped within the republican community. These attacks have exposed Sinn Fein as collaborators. They were a great victory. Our objective remains to bring down Stormont. We have already achieved our short-term aim, which was to discredit Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein has lost a lot of the older vote. It is banking on new votes. The big question is: will this young vote come out in the European election? We feel that this will drop drastically. McGuinness’ ‘traitor’ comment has backfired.”
The Oglaigh na hEireann spokesman would not be drawn on Orde’s claims that dissident republicans number no more than 300. Nor would he comment on suggestions that the dissidents might now turn their attention to attacking Unionists or mainland Britain. And nor would he say whether they would put up a candidate for European elections in Northern Ireland.
At the 2007 Assembly election, Sinn Fein trounced dissident candidates who ran under the umbrella of Concerned Republicans. The Oglaigh na hEireann spokesman said: “Fighting elections depends on money and is certainly an option.”
