FORGET Europe, the June 4 poll in the north of Ireland will have little to do with the European Parliament and be more a referendum on the success of the Democratic Unionist Party/Sinn Fein power-sharing government at Stormont.
Since there is traditionally a low turnout in Northern Ireland, European elections have become a five-year sectarian headcount as to which community can top the poll. However, with the recent upsurge in dissident republican activity, this year’s vote is to set to be the closest since the first Euro poll in 1979.
Until 2004, the outcome in Northern Ireland’s three European seats was predictable – and one of the factors contributing to a low turnout. The DUP topped the poll, the moderate Catholic SDLP came second and then the DUP’s transferred votes saw the Ulster Unionist runner also elected.
That all changed in 2004 when two of the big guns who had dominated the political agenda for more than a generation decided to step down: Ian Paisley, leader of the DUP, and his SDLP counterpart, John Hume. In 2004, the results changed the political landscape. The DUP’s candidate, Jim Allister, actually increased Paisley’s personal vote by some 3 per cent. Sinn Fein’s Bairbre de Brun captured the SDLP’s nationalist seat. Veteran UUP MEP Jim Nicholson held his seat thanks to Allister’s transfers under proportional representation.
Although June 4 will only see seven candidates in the field, the outcome will probably not be decided on the first count, but in the later transfer counts. Both Unionism and nationalism are split as never before.
The problem for Unionism is that Allister has quit the DUP in protest at its sharing power with Sinn Fein. He has formed the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice movement, and a number of DUP elected representatives have defected to it. Allister plans to exploit grassroots Unionist unease with the DUP in government with republicans. The DUP once campaigned on the slogan “Smash Sinn Fein”.
In a bid to re-capture Allister’s seat, the DUP has turned to Diane Dodds, wife of the party’s deputy leader and Stormont finance minister, Nigel. Diane Dodds once held an Assembly seat in the heart of republican West Belfast. Sinn Fein’s de Brun once represented West Belfast in the Assembly and held the post of health minister.
Rumours that dissident republicans would put up a runner against de Brun have come to nothing. However, there is still the danger that the traditional republican tactic of abstentionism could stop Sinn Fein topping the poll.
Just as there is unease among right-wing unionists about the DUP co-operating with Sinn Fein, so there is unrest in the republican community about what some see as the propping up of a partitionist parliament at Stormont. Nevertheless, given Sinn Fein’s record of efficient electoral management, the chances of the SDLP re-taking the seat are very slim.
This is also the first time the UUP will be campaigning under the joint ticket with David Cameron’s Conservative Party. This year has seen has witnessed a slow but steady drift of Unionist voters back to the UUP.
Nicholson will be hoping to maximise transfers from both Allister and Dodds, given the bad blood between the DUP and TUV camps. However, should Nicholson fail to hold his seat, Reg Empey’s leadership of the UUP will come under an intense spotlight.
The SDLP’s candidate is North Belfast Assembly member and former Belfast Lord Mayor Alban Maginness. An SDLP revival in time for the next Westminster general election and Assembly poll and expected new super council elections in 2011 depends on a strong showing for Maginness.
The centre parties face a huge uphill task to retain their vote, given that the main parties have largely moved to occupy the political centre ground over the past two years.
London and Dublin will be watching Allister’s performance with particular interest, as he is the only candidate running on an openly anti-Executive ticket. If he only polls between 25,000 and 30,000 first-preference votes, the TUV is likely to be condemned to the dustbin of history.
However, if he gets between 60,000 and 70,000 first preferences – even if he does not retain his seat – he could set a trend which could see the TUV hold the balance of power in the next Stormont Assembly. Even 65,000 votes could mean the TUV gaining up to 10 seats in a future Assembly – enough to dictate the agenda in the delicate balance among the 108 MLAs. This could be the main thinking behind a new DUP blueprint urging cuts in the number of MLAs to no more than 70 – enough to squeeze out a TUV challenge.
Whoever wins, all parties will be keeping a close eye on the fascist British National Party results in England, where the racist organisation could win its first Euro seat. Even if the BNP’s only success is its leader, Nick Griffin, there are fears that well-groomed racism will be packaged and sent across the Irish Sea for a concerted campaign for the Northern Ireland Assembly. And even if common sense prevails over sectarianism, racism looks set to become the new scourge.
