Carl Rowlands assesses the June 4 election prospects for left parties in central Europe
Poland
Centre-left politics in Poland have still to recover from the crushing defeat inflicted in the general election of 2005, when the SLD was pummelled into third place behind both populist and neo-liberal conservatism. Support for a merged “social liberal” coalition has failed to attract more than 15 per cent of the electorate. As a large country, Poland will have 50 MEPs after June 4, but only eight of these are likely to be linked to the European Socialists.
With no Green or Communist Party, a scattering of civic organisations provides some sort of challenge. The centre-left and coalition has had real problems connecting with an electorate which has become jaded about prospects for social progress. Ongoing anti-clericalism, corruption allegations and a tendency to make rash, opportunistic promises have further hampered the cause of the struggling Polish left.
Austria
In the second term of a “grand coalition”, both the major parties, the SPÖ and ÖVP, are set to lose votes – particularly to the populist far right, which has been making inroads into the SPÖ’s core support. The Greens are also expected to be squeezed in the changing political climate and are likely to lose a seat.
The Hans-Peter Martin List, named after the individualistic former Social Democrat leader, also looks set to be an MEP down. Regarded as either a hero or a muckraker, Hans-Peter Martin rose to prominence in 2004 for publishing 7,200 cases in which Members of the European Parliament falsely claimed attendance allowance. Counter-claims against him focused on his lunch expenses.
Relations with the SPÖ became strained and, in 2004, he broke away from it, forming his eponymous List. He stood with colleagues on a programme “for democracy, control, justice” and won 14 per cent of the vote, shocking the Austrian political establishment and giving the Hans-Peter Martin List two seats in the European Parliament.
Since then, Euro-scepticism in Austria has increased. This is despite the economic success that the country forged from the eastern enlargement process that preceded the credit crunch. As the economic climate gets colder and the level of Austria’s exposure to bad debt in the new EU states becomes clearer, even the SPÖ is now promising a referendum on any future treaties or enlargement.
Germany
The SPD should improve on its poor performance in 2004, gaining around eight seats. However, the right-wing CDU/CSU alliance is still likely to win the majority. A moderate improvement will leave the SPD hoping that the CSU will be stuck below the 5 per cent threshold, thereby resulting in the SPD being the largest contingent in the German delegation. With 99 MEPs, Germany is crucial to the composition of the EU Parliament.
To the left of the SPD, the Left Party has attracted some of those nostalgic for communism or disillusioned with the SPD. To some degree, Left Party luminaries have established themselves as effective governors at local level. Left Party success has added to the SDP’s internal turmoil, as different factions have struggled to assert a clear ideological direction. Not all SPD radicals have switched to the Left Party, however, and the latter’s 10 per cent opinion poll rating has remained fairly static.
Having travelled a long distance in a few years, the Left Party is no longer merely an insurgency. It is playing a role in defining the politics of other parties, even those of Angela Merkel’s CDU. The days of the neo-liberal ascendancy in German politics are truly over, leaving the FDP as an honest option for those who still like their monetarism neat.
The Greens look set to be squeezed in Germany, as elsewhere, as economic and social issues assert their primacy over the electoral landscape. They are expected to lose a couple of seats.
Hungary
For all the sound and fury of Hungarian politics in recent times, including riots, resignations and right-wing paramilitary attacks on MPs’ houses, the June 4 elections are only likely to see a few seats change hands.
The losers are likely to be the Socialist Party (MSZP), trailing heavily in the polls to Fidesz. The MSZP has placed five women at the top of its European parliamentary list, which some commentators think gives an indication of its worst expectations.
Nonetheless, to win no more than five of the 22 seats would be a disaster for the MSZP. Putting women at the top of the list gained them some kudos for gender equality. Unfortunately, this was offset by a more recent development. The new MSZP-backed “government of experts”, led by “chief expert” Gordon Bajnai, will not have a single female minister.
In addition, the strength of the MSZP’s largely pro-European stance is being tested by the recession, as the government asks retailers to stock 80 per cent Hungarian produce, in an apparent contradiction of basic EU tenets.
Elsewhere on the Hungarian left, which is notable for its fragmentation and parochialism, a new party expects to fight elections for the first time. Lehet Mas A Politika (LMP) – which means “Politics Can Be Different” – intends to sit with the Greens in the European Parliament, providing it can cross the necessary 5 per cent threshold in coalition with the Humanist Party.
In addition to its environmentalist policies, it advocates anti-poverty measures and a participatory democracy. LMP might succeed in winning support in Budapest and among students. But it is far from clear how the rural areas, which the LMP is so keen to defend, will respond to its literate and somewhat trendy campaigning style. Nonetheless, LMP represents new faces and a fresh approach – a chance to revive the sentiments of 1989 and reinvigorate a tired, corrupt democracy.
Unfortunately, Hungary is tilting towards the hard right, and the smaller parties are left without finance or the oxygen of publicity. The two small social democratic parties, MSZDP and SZDP, do not appear capable of replicating the success of their Czech and Slovakian counterparts.
That leaves Tamas Gaspar Miklos, an icon of Hungary’s left, to fly the flag for socialism of a distinctly Trotskyist hue. TGM, as he is known, is heading the list of the Green Left (Zold Baloldal), a combination of various small leftist groups. A genuine intellectual, he would be a significant addition to the European Parliament. But he is a rank outsider with a small base of support.
Finally, there is the Workers’ Party (Munkaspart), offering a slightly camp version of communist nostalgia. It is linked to the European Left Party. However, as with many on the “left” in Hungary, one has to wonder what this actually means.
Slovakia
The 2009 European parliamentary elections are not shaping up to be a huge success for the Socialist Group, despite the financial crisis and resulting recession. However, in Slovakia, the governing Smer (“Direction”) appears likely to gain support. The party expects to pick up a couple of seats to win around five of the 13 available. This would continue the unusual success story of a socialist party in a former communist country, which has trodden a fine line between social democracy, populism and nationalism.
Smer has been skilfully led into the position of the party of government by Robert Fico, who bears a startling resemblance to Suggs from Madness. Its dalliance with nationalism and the coalition with the far-right Slovak National Party led to Smer being sentenced to a rather meaningless suspension from the Party of European Socialists in 2006 – probably at the behest of the Hungarian MSZP.
This was purely temporary. The party was re-admitted the following year. Perhaps most significant in all of this was the party’s reaction to its suspension: a kind of studied indifference to wider European perceptions, which is likely to be reflected in a low turnout next week. In fact, the polls suggest that only 15 per cent of the electorate is likely to vote, despite the fairly high quality of the candidates.
The remuneration of MEPs is attractive, compared with the relatively meagre salaries in the national parliament. Nevertheless, Smer’s swaggering indifference to the hostility generated by its coalition partners, with their denunciations of Hungarians, casual racism and promises to defend the homeland, reflects a foreign policy which leans towards pan-Slavism. It sees Russia and Serbia as the historic friends of the Slovakian nation. The strange thing is that the population is relatively content, while Western leaders have developed a good working relationship with Fico.
An important factor in Smer’s success is that it does not represent continuity with a communist ancestor, although many of its leading figures were individual members of the Communist Party. In this sense, it has managed to balance its rhetoric to match the sensitivities of the electorate, which tend to be welfarist or social democratic, without being implicated in the previous authoritarian regime. This has enabled nationalist and populist parties to participate in a coalition without accusations of treachery or dishonour.
In this social democratic state, it’s generally acceptable for the police to bait and, in some cases, torture, minorities – whether Hungarian or Gypsy. In certain regards, Smer shows signs of being the party most linked to the state apparatus, with the various connotations that implies.
Smer appears to have swallowed up the entire left in Slovakia, as a range of leftist political parties were persuaded to disband in 2005. The unity, economies of scale and coherence facilitated by this process has been vital to continued Smer success. Other than a small Green Party, Smer is the only show in town. But whether this remains the case throughout the recession, which is only now starting to bite into Slovakia’s hitherto buoyant economy, remains to be seen.
Czech Republic
The Social Democrats (CSSD) stand on the threshold of victory. They are set to be the main winners in the European elections – possibly gaining seven seats to win nine of the 22 available, with the Greens also set for their first major representation in a former eastern bloc state.
The CSSD denies any link to the previous Communist regime and its members regard their party as the natural successor to the original Social Democrats, driven into exile after the Second World War. They have been ambitious from a policy perspective, focusing on long-term solutions to the challenges facing the country.
The Social Democrats show real signs of becoming a party of significant statesmen and women in the region, similar to their counterparts in neighbouring Slovakia’s Smer. They can define themselves against the unreconstructed Thatcherism of President Vaclav Klaus and are focused on living standards and applying Keynesian solutions to stimulate a relatively stable economy.
Both the CSSD and Smer are conscious of the continuing dependency on Russia for material resources. They tend towards a more nuanced foreign policy than simple obedience to Nato. From this point of view, there will be some geo-political significance in their success.
Carl Rowlands is on the co-ordinating committee of the central Europe branch of Labour International. This article was written with the assistance of other branch members
