by James Mills
The green revolution refuses to die away. Following the about-face by the Council of Guardians on the general election count, the entire superstructure of Iran’s complex political regime is under question. What marks the continuing demonstrations out from those previously, has been the degree of public involvement by senior members of the Iranian establishment. These demonstrations appear to have built up a coalition between street level activists and high-level political players in the regime, which no other previous public uproar has managed to do since 1979. The cause of this has been a mixture of the extreme unpopularity of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad among not just reformist politicians, but also moderate conservatives. Coupled with the mass feeling of shock and disbelief among the many proactive supporters of the reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi that Ahmadinejad could win such a landslide victory.
There are also reasons to believe that some form of electoral corruption has taken place. This is the first Iranian election where there have been no real checks and balances as it has been run solely by the Minister of the Interior, Sadeq Mahsouli, who is not only an appointee of Mr Ahmadinejad’s but also a former comrade from their Revolutionary Guard days. The more marginal issue of actual vote rigging was brought to the fore not only by the landslide result of Ahmadinejad, which has seen his share of the vote increase to 60 per cent compared to the 37 percent he won in 2005, but also his share of the regional vote in areas where local ties draw strong. For example, one of the presidential candidates, Mahdi Karroubi, saw his vote collapse to negligible levels in his native Lorestan and neighbouring Khuzestan, which he won in 2005 with 55.5 per cent and 36.7 per cent respectively. That would be similar to Alex Salmond losing his deposit in the SNP strong hold of Banff and Buchan.
Mousavi, Iranian prime minister during the Iran-Iraq War, draws his support from both the former presidents prior to Ahmadinejad. First, there is moderate conservative and big businessman Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who heads up the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts. The latter body supervises the actions of the Supreme Leader and has, in theory, the remit to appoint and replace Ayatollah Khamenei. It is understood that there has been an emergency meeting called in Qom to persuade the Supreme Leader to reconsider his decision to back Ahmadinjad, but the outcome is unclear at present. Second, there is reformist cleric Hamid Khatami, who withdrew his own candidacy earlier in the year in order to back Mousavi. The latter has also seen the former head of the Revolutionary Guards and fellow presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaie come out and call for the election to be annulled and a new one to be held. These figures have been the fulcrum on which the Islamic Republic has stood for the past 30 years, which makes their criticisms all the more sonorous.
Currently, the protests have been mainly an urban-based movement centred in and around Tehran. The real challenge is if the reformists can maintain their momentum and construct a root and branch coalition that can ignite a prairie fire throughout the country to the rural regions, then there is a chance a re-election could be called. However, this would be a big ask as these are the areas where Ahmadinejad’s support is at its strongest. The real watershed moment will come towards the end of next week when the Council of Guardians, the highest court in the land dominated by conservative clerics, decides on the appeals lodged by the other presidential candidates on whether there was electoral fraud and if the election should be deemed null and void. Ayatollah Khamenei will be hoping that this can provide him with an opportunity to persuade the opposition candidates and those on the streets to accept that the result is a reflection of the Iranian people at large, or promise to reign in some of Ahmadinejad’s more divisive domestic and foreign policies. Either way, expect chants of “Marg-ba Diktator” to be heard screamed from Tehran rooftops for at least another week.
