by Marcus Papadopoulos
President Viktor Yushchenko has fired the opening shots of the Ukrainian presidential election campaign by implicitly referring to his rivals as the “enemies within”.
In what is a clear attempt to discredit his rival contenders for the presidency as agents of Russia, the Ukrainian leader, speaking after the 13th European Union-Ukraine summit, said: “Either Ukraine asserts itself as a European country or ‘the fifth column’ will arrive.”
Voters in Ukraine will head to the polls on January 17 to elect a new president in an election whose outcome, say many analysts, will have a significant effect on the future direction and development of the country.
According to recent opinion polls, the leader of the pro-Russian opposition party, Viktor Yanukovych, is well ahead in the race for Ukraine’s top job. He is followed in the ratings by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, while the incumbent Mr Yushchenko is currently languishing in third place.
Mr Yushchenko came to power five years ago on a platform of moving Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrating it into the West. But the “orange revolution”, as it was called, has failed to achieve its objectives. Ukraine is nowhere near joining the EU and is even further away from membership of Nato.
The precarious situation in which the Ukrainian leader finds himself is partly a result of his falling out with Prime Minister Tymoshenko, who was once a solid ally.
In the past year, she has adopted a more conciliatory approach towards Ukraine’s giant neighbour, Russia.
During the last presidential election in Ukraine, the Kremlin openly backed Mr Yanukovych. It is likely that Moscow will again support him, although more subtly this time, knowing that if Mr Yushchenko is returned to power it could have serious implications for Russian security.
President Yushchenko remains intent on achieving his goal of seeing Ukraine join the EU and Nato and the time could come when both organisations admit Kiev into their fold.
The Russian leadership has repeatedly warned that Ukraine’s admission to the Western military alliance would constitute a major threat to the security of the Russian Federation.
The Kremlin is also acutely aware that the presence of its Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Ukraine, would be seriously jeopardised should President Yushchenko win next year’s election, since he has pledged not to renew the fleet’s lease, which is set to expire in 2017.
Moscow and Washington are both watching what happens in Kiev very carefully.
