The deal is sealed, so it is “peace in our time” again in Northern Ireland – at least until the general election expected on May 6, when First Minister Peter Robinson’s Democratic Unionist Party could well get a hammering from the increasingly agitated Unionist population.
The scene is set for the biggest Unionist realignment since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which led to the eclipse of the David Trimble-led Ulster Unionist Party.
The 2010 agreement between coalition partners the DUP and Sinn Fein to trigger the devolving of policing and justice powers to the Stormont Assembly could also signal the start of the DUP’s long-term demise.
The DUP had no choice but to sign the pact with the republicans. It should guarantee that the Northern Ireland Assembly does not grind to a halt and precipitate and spark a Stormont election.
While dissident republicans who are unhappy at Sinn Fein’s recognition of the Northern police force pose no electoral threat, the DUP has rather more significant opponents in the vehemently anti-Agreement Traditional Unionist Voice and the revitalised UUP.
The DUP currently holds half of Northern Ireland’s 18 seats in the House of Commons. In 2010, it may retain no more than four of them. Even the jewel in the DUP crown, Ian Paisley senior’s ultra-safe North Antrim seat, could fall to TUV leader Jim Allister, a former DUP MEP.
Such losses would be likely to sound the death knell for Peter Robinson’s chances of surviving as First Minister and continuing to lead the DUP. It is imperative for Robinson that he stops the steady drift of the DUP’s core vote – devout, churchgoing Protestants – to the TUV and Reg Empey’s UUP, which is now in alliance with David Cameron’s Tories as the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists New Force.
If many fundamentalist Protestants decide to stay at home on polling day, the general election winners are likely to be the north of Ireland’s nationalists – especially Sinn Fein.
With Assembly elections due next year, if the rot really sets in for the DUP, some commentators think the party could lose as many as 20 of its 36 Stormont seats.
If Peter Robinson decides to quit – or is forced out – his successor as DUP leader is most likely to be North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds, whose wife, Diane, is an MEP. The DUP would then have a new fundamentalist champion.
Currently, though, in terms of policy, there is little to choose between the DUP’s and the UUP’s strategies on devolution – hence the recent attempt by English Tories to form a pan-Unionist front involving all three parties.
Nevertheless, there is still a lot of animosity towards the DUP in the UUP’s ranks. Many of its members remain bitter about abuse they have received from the DUP since Ian Paisley first launched it.
Its critics accuse the DUP of putting its own interests before principles, policies or the interests of the people of Northern Ireland. They say the only reason it is now talking about Unionist unity and election pacts is because it is in deep electoral trouble. It is still smarting from the political kicking which Allister gave it at last June’s European elections, when he polled an impressive 66,000 votes instead of the 25,000 DUP pundits were predicting.
Now the DUP lacks the strong personalities to pull out of trouble. And the best option for a Nigel Dodds-led party could be merger with the UCUNF.
The TUV is widely regarded as a one-trick pony. It exists mainly to bash the DUP. Take the DUP out of the equation and, like its forerunner, the hardline United Kingdom Unionist Party, the TUV could be consigned to the dustbin of history – although perhaps not before it takes a few seats at the 2011 Assembly election.
Meanwhile, the moderate Catholic Social Democratic and Labour Party has elected a new leader. Stormont executive minister Margaret Ritchie has become the first woman to lead a major political party in Northern Ireland after narrowly – and surprisingly – defeating the frontrunner, South Belfast MP Alasdair McDonnell.
Ritchie believes she can lead the SDLP to be once again the main nationalist party in the province – as it was during the respective leaderships of Gerry Fitt and John Hume.
Some SDLP supporters maintain the best way to combat Sinn Fein is to merge with Fianna Fail, the senior coalition in the Republic of Ireland government led by Taioseach Brian Cowen.
However, Fianna Fail is now officially organising north of the border. Its supporters do not regard Ritchie as a strong leader. Just as the SDLP went head to head with the old Irish Nationalist Party for the Northern Catholic vote, so there is a significant lobby in Fianna Fail which believes the party take on the SDLP in the same way. It is not a merger that these people want; it is to swallow up a weakened SDLP.
Even if the DUP decides to remain in coalition with Sinn Fein, it is thought that a Fianna Fail/SDLP/ UCUNF link-up could be sold as a viable alternative to it. And this alternative coalition could also reach out to others, such as the Green Party and the Progressive Unionists.
