by John Coulter in Belfast
Democratic Unionist Party leader Peter Robinson is this week facing an open rebellion from his Assembly group as he attempts to seal a deal with Sinn Féin on devolving policing and justice powers to Stormont. And his Ulster Unionist Party counterpart, Reg Empey, is facing a similar rebellion over his party’s secret talks to form an election pact with the DUP – a move opposed by many middle ground Unionists in his party anxious not to scupper the current pact with David Cameron’s Conservative Party.
Sources close to the talks between the DUP and Sinn Féin say Prime Minister Gordon Brown is becoming increasingly frustrated with Mr Robinson’s party and its apparent inability to “cut a deal with republicans”. One leading Unionist source said: “Robinson is looking over his shoulder all the time at the electoral threat posed by Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionists. He also has to deal with the hawks in his own party who do not want to lose their seats in any forthcoming election – either to the UUP or TUV. As things stand, even if Robinson does cut a deal with Sinn Féin, the Unionist electorate will crucify his party at the polls.”
It is estimated that the DUP will only be able to hold 16 of its current 36 seats in the Assembly so the last thing Mr Robinson wants is a snap Assembly election. This could yet be a major lever in ensuring the DUP does do a deal.
Sinn Féin, though, could force a collapse of the talks – and the Assembly – and then emerge from the subsequent election as the largest party, thereby guaranteeing them the First Minister’s post.
One senior Unionist figure said: “Robinson is politically damned if he does a deal because his party will split, and he is damned if he doesn’t do a deal, because Unionist voters will shift to rival parties.”
Moves to include the DUP in an election pact with the UUP and Tories appear to have backfired on Mr Empey while some grassroots Unionists see an opportunity to rid the Unionist family of the divisive DUP.
One source said: “Since its formation in 1971, the DUP has split Unionism, Protestantism and Orangeism – why should the UUP and the Tories bail out the
DUP simply because Allister’s TUV is poised to make electoral gains?”
What could yet save the DUP is a hung parliament, irrespective of whether a deal has been achieved on policing and justice. But the bottom line is that the DUP is now in a fight for its very survival.
