Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com asks the question of what happens if – as the AA predicts – petrol prices reach a new record high between now and the election.
Smithson appears to show a correlation between the Tory lead over Labour for the past three years and the price of petrol. The cheaper it is to drive, he says, the closer Labour gets in the polls.
He could have gone further. The only time in Labour’s first two terms that the Tories briefly edged ahead in the polls was in during the 2000 fuel protests. If high fuel prices can make William Hague more popular than Blair was during his honeymoon, then they are a very potent political force.
Moreover, Smithson points out that this is even more of an issue in the marginals:
For the English middle-sized towns, where many of the marginals are, private motoring can be a hugely sensitive issue.
For compared with the big conurbations it’s in these places where public transport can be very limited that the motor car is more essential for every day life. Anything that makes motoring more expensive or difficult is politically toxic.
There is of course one big difference between fuel price rises today and those a decade ago, even if it’s not immediately obvious to consumers. The fuel protests in 2000 were in response to repeated increases in fuel duty against a backdrop of low prices on the commodities markets. The reason for the big rises in fuel prices recently is the increased price of fuel on the wholesale markets – which is down to demand outstripping supply.
But does the electorate see the difference? Smithson’s analysis suggests not – with massive policy implications for the future.
