Iraq’s second free parliamentary elections are approaching, but the country still needs all the friends it can get, says Gary Kent
The second-ever free parliamentary elections in Iraq have finally been set for March 7. This after months of haggling about the ground rules.
This reflects the still strong sectarian suspicions and divisions in the country. And the continuing atrocities are indicative of the desire of Baathist and al Qaida insurgents to whip up a crescendo of carnage with the aim of widening such divisions and derailing the elections.
There is no disguising the horror of these attacks. It is also true that, while Iraqi Kurdistan is the safest place in the country, violence elsewhere has dropped by 85 per cent in the past two years. But corruption and lawlessness are still rife, with 900 child kidnappings this year in the south of the country.
The forthcoming elections could consolidate democratic politics and test the country’s stability, the staying power of the insurgency and the viability of the timetable for the withdrawal of American troops.
The current coalition of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is in a strong position, but the atrocities may undermine it. Alliances between and across sectarian lines are in flux. Sunni voters are losing the habit of boycotts, thus stabilising politics and isolating insurgents. However, it will take months to negotiate a new government and this
could create further political, economic and security vacuums.
Electoral ground rules were only agreed after 10 fractious efforts, with eventual endorsement of open rather than closed lists so that voters can pick successful figures or reject crooks.
The various parties have also agreed an ambiguous compromise to allow voting in Kirkuk, where none took place at earlier provincial polls.
Saddam Hussein forcibly “Arabised” this traditionally Kurdish province, which Kurds want back. Underlying this is a struggle over the current management and potential control of Kirkuk’s huge oil and gas reserves. The lack of an agreed oil and gas law deters external investors who are key to increasing production. Iraq has the world’s third largest oil reserves, but is only the 11th largest
oil producer. It relies on hydrocarbons for nearly all its revenues.
Some fear that a Kurdish Kirkuk could drive Kurdish independence and unravel – to lethal effect – the borders which left Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria as one of the largest stateless people in the world.
Relations between Iraqi Kurds and Turkey have blossomed, however. Turkey trades extensively in Iraqi Kurdistan, is opening a consulate and improving Kurdish rights in Turkey. Ending the 25-year conflict with the PKK, which claimed 40,000 lives, seems possible. However, the recent decision of Turkey’s constitutional court to shut down the pro-Kurdish DTP party could extinguish such hopes.
Worryingly, relations between Iraqi Kurds and some Arabs have worsened in the extreme. The Kurds suffered decades of Saddam’s genocidal policies, but embrace a federal and democratic Iraq. Conflict could, however, escalate without a lasting deal on Kirkuk, in particular.
There is a dangerous gap based on cultural and ethnic differences, resentment and fear. Kurds see Baghdad building a strong central power base, rather than a federal state, and constantly delaying agreed constitutional provisions to solve problems. Many in Baghdad favour a stronger state to deliver security, essential services and national unity. Improving Kurdish-Arab relations should be a major priority.
Meanwhile, extremists prefer bombs to ballots. Massive explosions at several Baghdad ministries killed children, as well as civil servants vital to renewing Iraq. No one took revenge, but further attacks are likely in the crunch period before the elections.
The destabilising ploys of some neighbouring countries fuel this dance of death. For political, strategic and ethnic reasons, some neighbours are keeping Iraqi instability on the boil and disrupting water supplies. They prefer Iraq as a consumer rather than a producer of goods.
The stakes are colossal. Al-Maliki’s party says Iraq can become a beacon for democracy, freedom and moderation in the Middle East where tyrannies have bred poverty, backwardness and extremism in what should be one of the most prosperous parts of the world.
In the meantime, we should strive to help those who are seeking social justice in Iraq. Women’s rights have improved, but are under pressure. Media freedoms are
fragile. Living standards have doubled, but unemployment is at least 20 per cent of the workforce.
The position of the trade unions is a major issue for the international labour movement. The revival of independent unions is a striking feature of post-Saddam Iraq. Unions were viciously repressed by the dictator and have begun to win back a place for themselves in civil society.
However, outside Iraqi Kurdistan, unions still need basic freedoms. Old laws banning public sector organisation are still in place, funds have been sequestrated and there has been state interference in internal union elections.
Friends of Iraq point out that democracy is about more than elections. It also about the strength of civil society – and requires vibrant trade unions, women’s groups and an independent and professional media.
Iraq’s requests for international assistance to overcome decades of dictatorship must be heeded.
We need strategic relationships with Iraq at government and popular levels in order to encourage the trade and investment for which the unions and others are looking.
The coming few months are crucial times for Iraq, which is still in need of all the friends it can get.
Gary Kent is director of Labour Friends of Iraq and has visited Iraq five times since 2006
