Like father, like son: Ian Paisley Jnr
The future of the Paisley dynasty in Northern Ireland and which brand of Unionism nationalists must deal with will be decided at the general election expected on May 6.
And one Westminster constituency out of the 18 in the north of Ireland may hold the key to the survival of the Northern Ireland Assembly. This is North Antrim, once the undisputed fiefdom of Ian Paisley.
With Paisley retiring from the House of Commons, his son, Ian junior, has secured the Democratic Unionist Party nomination and will go head to head for the heart and soul of Unionism with anti-power sharing barrister Jim Allister, leader of the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice.
Paisley senior dramatically snatched the seat from the Ulster Unionists in 1970 at the age of 43, ironically on an anti-power sharing ticket. These days, the DUP under Peter Robinson, Paisley’s successor as First Minister, occupies the political ground which the firebrand preacher opposed so bitterly when he entered politics in the late 1960s. He rallied Protestant fundamentalist and loyalist conservative opinion against the liberalising policies of Terence O’Neill, then Northern Ireland’s Prime Minister.
Early iconic photos of “Big Ian” show the youthful looking religious tub-thumper throwing snowballs at the car containing Republic of Ireland premier Sean Lemass on a visit to Stormont. Now, as Paisley prepares to leave the Commons after 40 years, centrist Unionists might ask what would have happened if instead Paisley had chosen to serve Lemass with the teacakes known as snowballs, rather than pelt him with the real thing. Could the Troubles, which claimed the lives of more than 3,000 people, have been averted if Paisley had rallied his power base behind O’Neill instead of trying to overthrow him?
As he seeks to continue a political dynasty, Paisley junior is keen to point out that he is now 43 – the same age his father was when he was first elected to Westminster. Eileen, Paisley senior’s wife, is a peer and a former Belfast councillor. There is speculation that her husband could soon join her in the House of Lords – meaning three Paisleys might be members of the British Parliament.
A Paisley junior victory in North Antrim would see the DUP’s Protestant fundamentalist wing return to the fore, forcing Robinson to swing the DUP further to the right in its dealings with Sinn Fein. These have been more cordial since the signing of the Hillsborough Castle deal, which signalled the start of the return of policing and justice powers to Northern Ireland. However, if Paisley junior becomes the MP for North Antrim, it could set the scene for a leadership coup in the DUP.
North Antrim is also Allister’s home turf. He represented the constituency for the DUP in the old 1982-86 Assembly. And he sent shockwaves through his old party last year when, although he lost the seat in the European Parliament that he originally won for the DUP, he still managed to chalk up 66,000 votes when many DUP tacticians estimated he could only manage 25,000.
It seems to be a lose-lose situation for Peter Robinson. If Paisley junior wins North Antrim, he may then seek to replace him as leader of the party his father founded.
An Allister victory would virtually guarantee an attempt to oust him from the DUP leadership.
The DUP is expecting a hard fight to defend its nine Commons seats. Some commentators think the party will be lucky if it retains more than five of them. Heavy losses would also put Robinson’s leadership in doubt and could precipitate a campaign for the DUP to merge with its bitter rivals, the Ulster Unionists.
An Allister triumph in North Antrim might make both the DUP and UUP think they need to need to fire fight with fire in combating the TUV. In turn, that would put increasing strain on relations with republicans.
TUV intervention in other Westminster seats is a threat to several DUP MPs. Even if they keep their seats, their constituencies could become marginal ones.
That would put the TUV in good position to make gains at the next Northern Ireland Assembly elections. Currently, it has no seats at Stormont, but Allister is hopeful of winning eight or more. That could signal the collapse of the executive, if the TUV holds the balance of power between Unionist forces.
There is a mathematical chance that Sinn Fein could snatch North Antrim in May, although the constituency has only about a 30 per cent Roman Catholic population. At least five pro-Union candidates are expected to enter the fray, fragmenting the Unionist vote. This, along with Protestant apathy and significant tactical voting by Catholics, could see Sinn Fein Assembly member Daithi McKay pull off what would a huge shock – securing the once rock-solid Paisley stronghold.
Not since IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands went took on Unionism for the Fermanagh South Tyrone Westminster seat in 1981 has so much been placed on the result in a single constituency.
Whoever wins North Antrim will be in a position to set the political agenda for the future of the Northern Ireland Assembly.
