The general election on May 6 could decide the long-term futures of five of the north of Ireland’s political leaders.
With many bets on a hung parliament, this is also the first time since the 1974 and 1979 administrations of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan respectively that Northern Ireland voters could play a key role in deciding the future direction of the British government.
While Northern Ireland’s political parties are keen to emphasise national policies, it is inevitable that the election will be, in part, a referendum on political progress at Stormont.
It will also be the first major electoral test for the increasingly volatile Conservative and Unionist New Force, the shotgun marriage between David Cameron’s Conservative Party and Reg Empey’s Ulster Unionists.
Even before a single vote has been cast, this pact has already meant losses, with the UUP’s sole Westminster MP, Sylvia Hermon of North Down, refusing to take the Tory whip and opting to defend her seat as an independent.
At Stormont, Alan McFarland, a leading light on the UUP’s liberal wing, has also quit the party in protest at the deal with the Tories. Another three UUP MLAs are thought to be considering their positions.
The situation has led to Empey becoming the New Force candidate in the UUP’s primary target seat – the marginal of South Antrim, currently held by fundamentalist cleric William McCrea for the Democratic Unionist Party. The UUP really needs to win at least three of Northern Ireland’s 18 House of Commons seats if its working-class supporters are not to conclude that the pact with the Tories has been a gigantic flop. In such a scenario, the next step could be a leadership coup against Empey.
DUP leader and First Minister Peter Robinson could also face moves against him if his party does badly. For some time, disaffected mutterings about his leadership have been emanating from by fundamentalists loyal to Ian Paisley, his predecessor as First Minister and DUP chief. Paisley is retiring from the Commons after 40 years as North Antrim MP.
Robinson is in a lose-lose situation over the North Antrim constituency. The election sees a fight between Paisley’s son, Ian junior, for the DUP, and the hardline, anti-power-sharing Jim Allister, leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice. A win for Paisley junior could encourage the DUP’s fundamentalist wing to move against Robinson. Losing North Antrim to the TUV would ensure that they do.
North Antrim is the constituency where the TUV has its best chance of winning. Elsewhere, its intervention is more likely to help the New Force.
The battle for the hearts and minds of the Roman Catholic community is equally intense. The moderate nationalist SDLP, whose representatives do take their Commons seats, is going head to head with Sinn Fein, which still operates the traditional republican abstentionist policy as far as the British Parliament is concerned.
New SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie, a Stormont minister, will want to cement her position by defeating Caitriona Ruane, Sinn Fein’s controversial education minister, in South Down. This is the seat once held by the equally controversial UUP MP Enoch Powell.
Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams could face a tough campaign to retain West Belfast, particularly given recent allegations about his role in the IRA in a book featuring a hard-hitting interview with the late Brendan Hughes, the former Belfast IRA commander and hunger striker.
But the roughest contest will probably be that involving Peter Robinson in East Belfast, which he has held since 1979. He has endured months of intense media pressure since his wife, Iris, was forced to retire from public life following revelations about her teenage lover and allegations over money deals. The First Minister, too, has been at the centre of questions about his financial affairs.
It would be a huge upset if Robinson were to lose. However, the majorities of the nine DUP MPs could suffer a severe dent and conceivably worse because of the swing to the UUP, the TUV intervention and “Irisgate”.
After years of inter-party squabbling, a workable Unionist unity has become a reality in two constituencies where the two Unionist rivals have agreed to support the same candidates. The two seats are Fermanagh and South Tyrone, held for the past nine years by Michelle Gildernew for Sinn Fein and South Belfast, held by leadership contender Alasdair McDonnell for the SDLP since 2005.
Another three seats are safe republican strongholds, but the Sinn Fein vote could be squeezed by dissident republicans opposed to the peace process.
Sinn Fein’s constituencies are West Tyrone, held by Pat Doherty, Connor Murphy’s seat, Newry and Armagh, and Mid Ulster, where Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness is standing again.
Even with agreed candidates, the Unionists would have no chance of shifting this trio. At one time, though, all three seats were Unionist-held marginals.
Meanwhile, former SDLP leader Mark Durkan is a solid bet to retain his Foyle seat.
The election has also seen the emergence of celebrity candidates in three constituencies, with television presenters standing for the SDLP and New Force.
And in Upper Bann – once held by David Trimble – Freddie Mercury impersonator Harry Hamilton (his Queen tribute band is called Flash Harry) is bidding to recapture the seat for the UUP by unseating gospel-singing DUP MP David Simpson.
Tactical voting by nationalists and political apathy among Protestant churchgoers could be crucial in deciding who wins in a number of seats.
