The eruption of support for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats has thrown a cloud over British politics and resulted in a dramatic break in normal service. Whether or not it will be shown to have been a blip, it has had the two main parties swivelling their sights to target the new threat. “Vote Clegg, get Brown”, was David Cameron’s warning message. “Vote Clegg, get Cameron” was Gordon Brown’s. If the Lib Dems hold the momentum until polling day, either is a possibility. The single most unlikely result is “Vote Clegg, get Clegg”. So far, so much personality, so little policy. Whatever other benefits they are bringing to Britain’s jaded politics, the televised debates are quickening the transformation of a parliamentary democracy to a presidential style of government. There can be no turning back on the televised encounters, they are here to stay. And where they are a means of illuminating the policies on which parties are standing, they are an overdue essential element of the democratic process. The downside, as we have seen, is that we are bombarded by debate about style and presentation rather than substance; the appearance of the party leaders, their body language, facial mannerisms and their popularity ratings. Thus Nick Clegg’s bounce and the frenzy of speculation over a hung parliament, coalition, pacts, radical reform of the political system and even a “government of national unity”.
What is needed is a government united around policies that are in the national interest, first and foremost on the economy. This week’s record jobless figures, the worst in 15 years, show the scale of the challenge ahead. It has never been more urgent to avoid a double-dip recession of the kind Tory policy would deliver. With unemployment rising unexpectedly in the three months to February, hitting 2.5 million people, the number of people out of work has increased by 43,000. The number of economically “inactive” people – those who are ill, studying or parenting – rose by 110,000 to 8.16 million.
Tories relish the prospect of a so-called “jobless recovery”, forcing down pay and conditions for ordinary people in the name of “productivity”. If they get their wish, it will be a case of “the operation was a success but the patient died”. Scotland has officially just emerged from recession, but only through paying a high price in job losses.
Both Alistair Darling and Vince Cable believe cutting training, education and public spending at this time can only hurt employment and the wider economy. But a hung parliament will not satisfy the vicissitudes of the unelected “markets”, the boardrooms and bankers whose behaviour has fuelled the popular rage and – with the MPs’ expenses scandal – the clamour for “change”.
Given where Labour stood six months ago or even less, many supporters and party members would be quietly satisfied with a hung parliament if it keeps the Tories out. The fear is that, if a Lib-Lab coalition is perceived to be inevitable, voters will think it safe to jump on the Clegg bandwagon only to wake up on May 7 with David Cameron in Number 10.
In the final debate on the economy, Gordon Brown has to find the language to convince the country that only a vote for Labour is a vote for recovery.
