The leaders’ television debates have undoubtedly had an unexpected outcome on the opinion polls. The surge in Nick Clegg’s support following the first encounter appears to have come mainly at the expense of the Conservative Party. This underlines how the public is far from convinced about the prospect of the Tories running the country.
So the third and final debate could be decisive – not just because of its timing, but because it will address the key issue in the minds of the electorate: the economy.
A number of factors are in Labour’s favour on this, but one – the issue of Labour engaging in public sector cuts – is severely undermining our support.
Of great advantage is that we have by far the most competent and experienced team led by Gordon Brown. The polls show – as do private focus groups – that people are not totally convinced by David Cameron. More than that, they are profoundly queasy about George Osborne. The Tories know this and are keeping him off of the nation’s TV screens.
This feeling that the Tory team is inexperienced feeds into the second economic factor in Labour’s favour. And this is that their inexperience led to a string of false judgement calls during the recession. As Gordon Brown has repeatedly said, the Tories were “wrong, wrong, wrong”. And they are still wrong now in wanting to begin cutting public expenditure in the current financial year.
Indeed, the Conservatives have said they will have an emergency budget, which will cut services and jobs, and perhaps increase VAT, within 50 days if they are elected. This means we are theoretically only a few weeks from Osborne’s axe.
Labour ought to be clearly linking in the public mind the notion that the Tory team is inexperienced with the idea that inexperience in opposition is one thing, but the prospect of mistakes made in an emergency budget will lead to job losses, home repossessions and business failures. However, in the first few weeks of the election campaign, the Tories made all the running on the economy and the Labour leadership was not able to pin down the Tory economic errors.
Why was this? The answer, sadly, is that the Blairites dominating much of Labour’s campaign are trapped in a potentially lethal approach to the economic crisis based on an inappropriate mix of “new” Labour ideology and Treasury orthodoxy.
One example of the damaging effects of this was how we could not resist the Tory attack on National Insurance created by a bunch of Tory-leaning business people. The obvious and immediate response from Labour should have been a clear statement that we would not impose a VAT rise, which is the Tories’ preferred option. This was not done because it is plain that the Blairite elements in Labour’s high command would have preferred a VAT rise and are not prepared to rule one out.
It is also worth looking back to the effects of the Budget on the polls. On Budget day, the Government seemed to have a balanced approach to the need to reduce the deficit over time. This amounted to a three-pronged strategy, consisting of a return to growth, fair taxation and efficiency savings in the public sector. The economy showed modest signs of recovery, stimulated by the Government’s fiscal package at the start of the crisis. As the economy returns to growth, income from tax would rise and the costs of unemployment and higher welfare payments would come down. This was to be the engine of the deficit reduction plan. Growth would be accompanied by fairer tax rises, such as the 50 pence rate on those earning more than £150,000 a year. And then there would be efficiency savings in public spending, but frontline services would be protected.
Perhaps surprisingly, given the Tory lead in the polls over many months, the Budget message initially proved to be mildly popular with the public. ComRes’ Budget poll showed that Brown and Darling led Cameron and Osborne by 33 per cent to 27 per cent as the most trusted on the economic downturn. Populus asked a similar question and found a similar lead for Brown and Darling. This is in contrast to other recent poll findings that showed Cameron and Osborne ahead.
But then Labour’s poll rating began a gradual descent. This coincided with the Chancellor suddenly changing his narrative about the recovery and the deficit reduction plan, which had been carefully crafted in his Budget speech. Instead, Darling went on the airwaves to say that the cuts which Labour would introduce after the election would be more severe than Margaret Thatcher’s. In Channel 4’s Chancellors debate with George Osborne and Vince Cable, he reiterated this and the country was treated to the astonishing sight of all three men assenting to the proposition about deep cuts.
Crucially, it seems, no one in Labour’s campaign team had used private polling to “market-test” the Thatcher comments before they were made. A YouGov poll published on the day of the Budget gave the Tories just a two-point lead with 36 per cent compared to Labour on 34 per cent. But one week later, following the tougher-than-Thatcher comments, this had opened to 8 per cent.
The cuts message especially appears to be undermining support among social groups C2, D and E – the poorest 50 per cent – which are a key element of Labour’s support. The same YouGov poll on Budget day actually gave Labour a six-point lead among these voters. However, a week later, the Tories had overturned this and established a 5 per cent lead.
Being “tougher than Thatcher” is clearly unpopular. It must be avoided over the last weeks on the campaign with an emphasis on Labour’s defence of public services and a focus on the danger the Tories pose to a still-fragile recovery with their threat to withdraw £6 billion out of the economy.
The key issue for Labour is how to mobilise those who identify with the party but are not yet convinced to support it, Polls still show that many more Labour people identify with the party than are intending to back it at the ballot box. Policies are needed to get these votes out. Every emphasis on cuts will undermine our support.
Given that the policies most closely identified with the Blairite agenda lost Labour four million votes between 1997 and 2005, Peter Mandelson’s remarks that Labour is fighting the election as “Blair plus” can only be damaging.
Labour should stand above all for a strategy of tackling the deficit by protecting frontline public services, stimulating further economic growth and introducing tax on the bankers. This is still a winning formula. After all, it’s attitudes to the economy which will be decisive in making up the voters’ minds when they get to the ballot boxes.
