For those with a taste for conspiracy theories, the place to visit is the Philippines, where many far-fetched notions are rooted in a distrust of elected officials so deep that almost any calumny will be believed.
Last year, for example, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s frequent visits to her home town in Pampanga province gave rise to a rumour that, as she must step down from the presidency after this May’s elections, she was planning to run for Congress in Pampanga’s second district, where the incumbent – her son – would step aside in her favour.
Why would she do such a thing? Well, the reasoning went, since being swept into office by a military coup disguised as a “people power” uprising in 2001, Gloria Arroyo had been accused of gaining an electoral mandate in 2004 by fraudulent means, being party to various forms of corruption and turning a blind eye to the murder of left-wing activists. Immune from any civil suit by virtue of her presidential status, her substantial majority in the House of Representatives protected her from impeachment.
Would she enjoy immunity as a congresswoman? No, conceded the conspiracy theorists, which is why, once in the House, she would mobilise her supporters behind her bid to become speaker, after which she would oversee the process of constitutional change (unsuccessfully attempted on several occasions during her presidency), leading to a switch to a parliamentary system under which those same supporters, now transformed into MPs, would elect her prime minister, thus restoring her immunity.
But all this was merely a theory – until, at the end of last November, Mrs Arroyo announced that following “much contemplation I realised I am not ready to step down completely from public service”. Yes, she will be running for a congressional seat in Pampanga’s second district where, just as the conspiracy theorists predicted, her son Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo has stepped aside and is a nominee of one of the party-list organisations (for which, ostensibly representing “marginalised” sectors, the electorate has a separate vote). If elected, millionaire Mikey will be representing low-paid security guards.
Mikey is not alone in his rather dubious claim to marginalised status, and opponents are calling for a whole number of questionable party-list groups to be disqualified –
the fear being that this is yet another ploy by the Arroyo family to pack congress with supporters.
Before her announcement, Mrs Arroyo had a potential challenger in sociology professor, columnist, television presenter and political activist Randy David. Also a native of Pampanga, he vowed that he would run against her. His candidacy would have raised the possibility of the kind of largely cashless popular campaign that elected former priest Ed Panlilio to the governorship of that same province in 2007, denying the seat to Arroyo ally Lilia Pineda.
But then David, anxious not to “undermine the authority I have carefully cultivated as a social analyst and public intellectual”, withdrew, leaving Mrs Arroyo the odds-on favourite to win.
Governor Panlilio has fallen foul of a recount by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) which found that votes cast for Lilia Pineda using her nickname (until this year, electors had to write in the name of their favoured candidate) should have been counted. Such challenges resulted in the unseating of two other governors elected in 2007, although one has since been reinstated by the Supreme Court.
Unsurprisingly, the conspiracy theorists found the recounts very disturbing, given the proximity of another election (the influence of governors can be crucial) and the fact that all three governors were identified with the opposition. Public incredulity is strongest in the case of Grace Padaca of Isabela province, where Comelec took the view that 18,000 ballot papers had been completed by the same person – an almost superhuman task.
The fact that this year’s polls will be automated has given rise to fears that, due to a malfunctioning of the 82,000 vote-counting machines or, say, an interruption of the power supply, a failure of elections will be declared and Gloria Arroyo will continue in office.
While it is tempting to dismiss such outlandish speculation, Comelec openly admits that 30 per cent of its machines could fail, and the long dry spell caused by El Niño has left several dams at a dangerously low level, resulting in daily brownouts in some regions – particularly Mindanao, where cheating was said to be rife in 2007.
