Liberal Democrats continue to defy expectations of an electoral backlash – at least at local government level – and even scored a surprise by-election gain in the normally Tory-dominated Earl’s Court part of Kensington and Chelsea in London.
All the local by-elections were held since the party went into coalition with the Conservatives in May and ahead of next month’s Comprehensive Spending Review (October 20), which is expected to be unpopular with many of the party’s core supporters.
Research published by the Local Government Chronicle, the Association of Liberal Democrat Councillors and the political commentator Paul Waugh – and compiled ahead of the Lib Dems Earl’s Court gain on a 15 per cent swing – says that in
17 by-elections contested by the party since May, the Lib Dems gained six, held nine, and lost two leading to a net gain of four seats.
Nearly all of the gains were – as in Earl’s Court – at the expense of Conservatives who lost a net seven seats in the 28 they contested. Labour gained nine and lost one in 24 seats in which its candidates stood.
But the figures do not take into account the Tory by-election victory in one of the most deprived wards (New River) in England in Diane Abbott’s east London constituency of Hackney. The Tories increased their majority there from 39 to 560.
Labour said that despite the defeat, its vote went up almost 300 since the last by-election and suggested the fact that 1,100 of the 1,400 Tory votes were postal was significant.The Lib Dems say that if their performance at local elections (even without the 15 per cent swing in Earl’s Court which has made them jubilant) was projected to a national vote, their share would be 25 per cent – significantly higher than in every major opinion poll published since May.
Meanwhile research carried out by Professor John Curtice at the University of Strathclyde suggests Labour and Tories will struggle to win an overall majority in future general elections – with or without the introduction of the alternative vote and boundary changes – and that Lib Dems may permanently hold the balance of power as a “hinge party”.
