Tony Blair’s old chief of staff, banker Jonathan Powell, recounts in his book The New Machiavelli, his latest attempt at self-justification, how he sat next to Iraq war propagandist Alastair Campbell at a September 11 memorial service in St Paul’s Cathedral. Comical Ali, according to Powell, nudged him in the ribs and pointed to Gordon Brown seated a couple of rows ahead alongside Iain Duncan Smith and William Hague. “Look”, whispered Ali into Jonny’s ear, “the leaders of the opposition”.
That’s quite funny, but I daresay, had Brown glanced over his shoulder and spied the giggling Downing Street duo, he might have muttered: “I better watch my back”.
It would have been a not unreasonable conclusion for Brown to draw, given that Campbell – who really ought to have known better with his own personal history – briefed that the then Chancellor suffered “psychological flaws”. And the great spin-doctor went on to craft a backfiring stunt with an Elvis Presley impersonator in the 2010 election which was Brown’s low light until Gillian Duffy intervened.
Winston Churchill, when at the dispatch box on a bad day, considered the party across from him in the chamber of the House of Commons as the opposition while the MPs sat behind in his own party were the enemy. It’s a clever point, one of those assertions to be discussed at a north London dinner party or these days, I suppose, in Notting Hell. But it’s not true.
Whatever the rivalries within political parties, more unites most members than divides them. That includes perhaps even John McDonnell on the Labour left and Pat McFadden on the party’s right or those unfraternal Milibrothers, Ed and David, who put brotherly love to one side in a battle for social democracy within one family. Ed Miliband, as the new leader, has opponents within the Labour Party – not least some of defeated Dave’s supporters.
Yet every day brings an announcement which proves Labour’s enemy is the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. Scapegoating all five million workless on benefits. Returning universities to the preserve of a wealthy elite. Ending universal child benefit. Attacking the pensions of staff in the public services. Privatising the National Health Service by putting GPs in charge. The tsunami of cuts in the Public Spending Review. Each on its own is a devastating policy driven by a free-market ideology. Put them all together and it creates a programme to change Britain for the worse which makes the progressive policies implemented by Labour over the 13 years between 1997 and 2010 look embarrassingly meek.
But – and there is a “but” – the truth is a majority Conservative government would be a more grievous threat to Britain than a coalition. Labour people love to goad the Liberal Democrats, charging Nick Clegg’s party of a betrayal and selling its soul for a few chauffeur-driven cars and red boxes. I enjoy doing it myself. There’s much evidence to support the argument. The Lib Dems are getting less out of the coalition than the Cons. National identity cards would have been scrapped anyway. Capital gains tax at 28 per cent is still less than higher rates of income tax at 40 per cent or 50 per cent. The immigration cap will be imposed, despite not fitting. Tuition fees are poised to soar despite every Lib Dem MP signing a pre-election pledge to the contrary.
The Lib Dems, however, apply a brake in some areas. The Human Rights Act survives the sharpened fangs of a howling Tory right. Calls to slap trade unionists in leg irons simmer (at least for now) on the back-burner instead of boiling over in emergency legislation. The cuts coming down the line mean these are sticking plasters when Britain is battered senseless, but they also identify the crack in the coalition – the fact the enemy isn’t united and one part is more terrifying than the other.
Ed Miliband didn’t spare the Lib Dems to win the votes of Labour’s selectorate and, loyal chap that he is, remembered that Nick Clegg demanded Gordon Brown’s head, so argued Clegg would need to resign before Labour entered talks on a pact, should the next general election produce another inconclusive result.
We have a two party electoral system (and are likely to keep it if, as expected, next May’s referendum is lost), although voters have worked out themselves how to sustain three parties, tactical voting replacing life-long affiliations. Labour winning the next election isn’t to secure an overall majority. Winning the next election is to finish the party with most seats – and then enter coalition talks with the Liberal Democrats.
The Labour leader needs a twin-track attack policy. The Conservatives should be targeted in anger, the Lib Dems more in sorrow. It won’t be easy. It may go against his gut instinct, but it recognises the reality that the Government isn’t a whole, the softer skin around the hard core vulnerable to reasoned debate and wooing.
The talk in Westminster is of Lib Dem defections to Labour. I’ll believe them when they happen. Meanwhile, a plan is needed to drive a wedge between the Cons and Dems in the Con-Dem Government. Any suggestions?
