All the talk in the bars of Westminster this week was of the Liberal Democrats’ three-way split over the House of Commons vote on tuition fees. “It’s their Iraq moment”, says one gleeful Shadow Cabinet minister. “They won’t recover from this for a generation”, asserts one of Ed Miliband’s inner circle.
And the Labour leader is trying to exploit the rift by reaching out to unhappy, progressive Lib Dems as he tries to entice them over to Labour. There are even rumours of a Lib Dem MP crossing the floor to Labour.
The Lib Dems are tanking in the opinion polls – a trend that is almost certain to continue as Labour edges into a narrow lead over the Tories. To pile on the agony, Nick Clegg’s team are petrified about how the Lib Dems will do in May’s local elections amid fears of a meltdown.
So, that’s all fantastic news for Ed Miliband then, as he starts to build his team around him and takes stock over the Christmas break, isn’t it? Well, there are some on both sides of the Commons who don’t share that view. They believe that David Cameron needs the obliging Lib Dems on board to take the hit on his most unpopular policies in order to allow Tory ministers to duck the cameras at critical moments.
The Prime Minister is also facing growing rumblings from his own right wing, led by standard-bearer David Davis. They are fed up with being taken for granted. No wonder some are now embarking on night-time jaunts up to Soho and the hotel bars of London’s West End. No good will come of it.
Increasingly, Cameron needs the Lib Dems and they need him. The greater the heat, the tighter become the bonds between Clegg and Cameron in their Faustian pact.
For a clue of where Clegg and Cameron are really heading, take a look at Tory oddball Jacob Rees-Mogg. The fogeyish son of former Times editor William Rees-Mogg, Mogg junior infamously canvassed the working class voters of Central Fife in 1997 in his Bentley with his nanny. He was not elected. Now the new Tory MP for North East Somerset, Old Etonian banker Mogg wants to hold on to his seat. That’s why he’s one of a handful of Tories calling for the two parties to fight the next election as a coalition.
If the Lib Dem vote implodes, his seat is almost certain to go Labour, which came second last time around. Other Tory MPs are in a similar position and privately confide to their allies that their right-wing roots must come second to their instincts for self-preservation.
Those in Cameron’s inner circle have done the maths too. They realise they need to keep the Lib Dems on life-support if their symbiotic relationship is to survive. That’s why they will keep rolling out Sir John Major with his pro-coalition mantra: “I hope some way can be found to prolong co-operation beyond this parliament.” Expect plenty more of that in the months to come.
Vincent Moss is the political editor of the Sunday Mirror
