The same cannot be said of the Tories or the Liberal Democrats. To increase the Labour majority from 103 to 3,558 when the incumbent MP had been barred is more than encouraging. Some commentators thought the Labour vote could collapse but, on the contrary, Debbie Abrahams achieved a higher vote than either Phil Woolas or Elwyn Watkins at the 2010 general election.
In fact, with 42.1 per cent of the vote, she recorded the party’s highest proportion ever in this constituency. Whisper it quietly, but on the ground in this area that augurs well for the future.
The sighs of relief from the Lib Dem camp that they were not wiped out could be heard all the way down the M6 to Westminster. The one thing they now dread is a by-election in a constituency with a large student vote. The biggest losers were the Tories who, despite having a local candidate from the ethnic community, saw their vote collapse, down 7,000 from the general election.
The result demonstrates that, despite Labour’s battering in May, the party has lost none of its campaigning zeal. The number of volunteers was impressive, the organisation excellent and the commitment inspiring.
The campaign managed to mobilise the electorate to turn out in appalling conditions – it tapped into voters’ concerns about the impact of the coalition’s cuts, especially to policing, and motivated those disappointed by the Lib Dems’ broken promises.
The use of posters declaring “I’m voting Labour on Thursday – No more leaflets thanks!” was inventive, and doorstep calling cards asking supporters to commit to a time when they would vote appeared effective.
Work by Unison to talk face to face with people in the constituency may provide a useful model for mobilising union support in the future. A conversation with a union officer urging you to turn out for Labour is different from receiving leaflets or talking to a Labour Party volunteer.
So what lessons can Labour draw as the party looks to the future?
First, they can take pride in putting up a strong candidate who was both local and personable.
Second, Ed Miliband clearly does not alienate the voters.
Third, that if you fight a good campaign – which Labour did – then you have a chance. Debbie Abrahams would add that if you’re going to run a by-election during the coldest winter Oldham has ever known then make sure you’ve got some decent thermals.
