The result, expected in mid-February, seems certain to split Africa’s largest country and create the world’s newest nation.
Despite violent clashes in the oil-rich Abyei region which reportedly left more than 30 dead, the referendum has been a resounding success. Turnout was high with an overwhelming number of southern Sudan’s four million eligible voters participating. The indefinite postponement of a referendum in Abyei has, ironically, served to postpone a potentially explosive source of conflict over oil revenues in the region.
Secession of the predominantly Christian south from the Muslim north will probably happen in July. Partition will represent the final stage of a peace process that successfully brought to an end Africa’s longest war.
But, as the violence in Abyei highlights, it carries with it dangers of a return to instability. Key to averting a slide back to civil war will be international recognition of a newly-formed southern Sudan, not just by the United Nations and global powers but crucially by the African Union.
But as respect for colonial borders was one of the AU’s founding principles, and as there is a fear among many African leaders that independence for southern Sudan could encourage more secessions across the continent, the AU’s position is far from clear.
Southern Sudan’s chances of gaining international recognition are boosted by the fact that the comprehensive peace agreement which brought Sudan’s second civil war to an end in 2005 had tremendous political investment from the international community. The AU is a signatory and guarantor of the CPA under whose terms the referendum on self-determination was guaranteed.
The United States also played an important role and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently spoke in favour of independence for Southern Sudan. The US is expected to be among the first nations to recognise Southern Sudan. Less clear is the position of China, a key investor in Sudan and a strong ally of President Omar al-Bashir.
Ultimately, the future of Sudan will be determined by the Sudanese people and their leaders. In the past, President al-Bashir has fiercely opposed independence for the south but has recently adopted a more moderate tone, stating that he would respect the outcome of the referendum.
Voters in the territory have almost certainly opted for independence and the formation of a 54th African state but international recognition will be needed to provide the new-born nation with the legitimacy it will need as it takes its first shaky steps towards creating a stable democracy in one of the poorest and most volatile places on the planet.
