America’s policy of keeping Egypt as a pliant state and propping up a brutal autocrat has led to decades of instability in the Middle East. The foreign policy pragmatism of the United States – and by extension Britain – has served to undermine progress by effectively removing from the scene one of the major players in the region.
Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year-rule has been marked by tyranny against the Egyptian people. The recent appointment of Omar Suleiman, the head of the security police, to the vice-presidency was designed to preserve Mubarak’s power base. A small elite controls Egyptian society and this reactionary group is desperately fighting to retain its wealth and power – and its stranglehold over what has been a rigorous hierarchical political and social culture.
Now Egypt is on the cusp of a social revolution as well as a political one. As in Tunisia, the population has had enough of the old ways. External information sources, particularly the internet and Al-Jazeera, have helped to expose just how despotic and corrupt many regimes in the Arab world are.
The Middle East is a hotbed of competing strategic interests. The nations involved are becoming increasingly unstable. There is immense dissatisfaction with the various “ocracies” – Iran (theocracy), Yemen (theocratic autocracy), Iraq (nascent but fragile democracy), Syria (dynastic autocracy), Egypt (nepotistic kleptocracy) and Saudi Arabia (monarchical autocracy).
The three big players – Egypt, Iran and Israel – have not established normal relations, partly because an enfeebled Egypt has singularly failed to punch its weight. Egypt should be expected to play a pivotal role in the region. Historically, it has been the leading political and cultural force in the Arab world.
However, Mubarak’s rule has created a dangerous vacuum in which stability has been undermined. America’s blinkered focus on ensuring the security of Israel by neutralising Egypt has allowed Tel Aviv to act with impunity in its treatment of the Palestinians, while Tehran exerts a much greater influence than is healthy.
The failure of Egypt to engage authoritatively with the rest of the Arab world contributed to Middle Eastern volatility. Would Lebanon have descended into civil war if Egypt had asserted itself? Would Saddam Hussein have dared to invade another Arab country if Egypt had been a stable and democratic influence?
Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah exemplify its foreign policy objectives for the region. Egypt’s political impotence has allowed Middle Eastern politics to be perceived through the prism of Israeli security in the light of Iran’s ambitions. It serves Tel Aviv to play up the threat of Iran because that helps to keep Washington onside.
The shameful collaboration of Mubarak and his cronies in the siege of Gaza has worsened the plight of the Palestinians, while the Israelis have been able to pretend that they can’t negotiate with anyone because no country can deliver a peace on its own. Hamas has gained from Egyptian inaction.
The massive military aid the US gives to Egypt – once Israel’s greatest enemy – has amounted to a bribe to a small clique so it does Washington’s bidding. A confident and secure Egypt could act as a counterbalance to Iranian influence in the region, because pan-Arabism (among mainly Sunni Muslim populations) is a more powerful unifying force than Iran’s form of Shia Islam. Egypt has a history as the political and cultural leader of the Arab world and Arabs and Iranians have little love for one another.
The only reason the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan in Arabic) has the strength it does is because of Mubarak’s suppression of any internal opposition. Desperate people can be compelled towards desperate measures and the Muslim Brotherhood has capitalised on that desperation. Mubarak’s rule has permitted the re-growth of Palestinian violence over the past 10 years, leading to the polarisation of Palestinian politics and the disastrous civil war between Hamas and Fatah.
The Muslim Brotherhood is not the threat that Mubarak and Israel would have us believe. It is not a coherent group with a recognisable political ideology. Rather, it is a theocratic alliance that does not have majority support in Egypt. While it might gain significant influence in any new parliament, if free and fair elections are held, it is unlikely that it would win an outright majority.
Mubarak and his henchmen have labelled the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organisation and exaggerated the threat it poses as a cover to leverage large amounts of US military aid to repress the population as a whole.
Individual atrocities in Egypt, such as the Luxor massacre of 62 tourists at Temple of Hatshepsut in 1997, have been perpetrated by Islamic terrorists from Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya (“The Islamic Group”) and Jihad Talaat al-Fath (“Holy War of the Vanguard of the Conquest”). Neither has links to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian society is a diverse mix of various shades of Islam, plus Christian and secular groupings. As the huge demonstrations against Mubarak have shown, democratic ideals have massive support. Britain and the rest of the European Union should disassociate themselves from US policy, encourage free elections and provide the help needed to construct a modern, outward-looking civil society with the emphasis on good governance and the rule of law.
If the Americans were serious about playing a constructive role in the region, they would cut off military aid to Egypt immediately and switch the funding to welfare programmes focusing on relieving poverty. They would encourage a rapid expansion in education and foster a pluralistic political environment.
If there is ever to be long-term peace in the Middle East, a democratic and confident Egypt must take centre stage. This would give the Palestinians a dependable ally whose support would be able to guarantee equality at the negotiating table with Israel.
It is in Israel’s best interests to see a viable conclusion to the Middle East peace process. That can only be achieved if a modern, democratic country acting as the leading voice in the Arab world underpins it.
For too long, Egypt has been hamstrung by the repression Mubarak’s regime has visited on its own people.
