The successful intifadas in Tunisia and Egypt serve as an exemplar to protesters across the region and, for many young Arabs, there is now no going back. It is “opening the gate of ijtihad” – the right of independent reasoning – that has been closed to many since the 14th century.
Not only is modernity the aim, it has also been the tool that underpinned the protests. One of the sparks that lit the tinderbox was WikiLeaks. United States embassy cables from Tunis laid out the gross avarice of President Ben-Ali and the people of Tunisia rose up against the corruption of the ruling elite.
The greatest weakness of Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi et al was the political stasis they relied on to preserve their power. But what was once their greatest strength – stability – became thei greatest weakness. A leaderless mass movement moved beyond a nascent stage through multifarious networks to come out onto the streets.
Like all repressive regimes, one of the main tactics was to isolate individuals and deter political intercourse. Until recently, control of the media allied to a ubiquitous and intimidating secret police was enough to deter any significant opposition.
But Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and internet chat fora created a public space young Arabs were only too happy to fill. Politicisation led to organisation which led to demonstrable opposition. The tools provided by contemporary social media led to ad hoc political opposition which the nepotistic kleptocracies of the region – and especially vainglorious narcissists such as Colonel Gaddafi – were incapable of recognising. Now they have paid the political price.
The role of satellite television has also been important in revealing an alternative narrative to that disseminated by the regimes’ official channels. It has served as a crucial source of independent information. The influence of Al-Jazeera from its studios in Qatar should not be underestimated. Untainted by any linkage to Western governments, Al-Jazeera has become a trusted source for independent news across the Arab world.
The growing disjuncture between oppressor and oppressors went unobserved in the West, whose comfort zone of stability in the Middle East was epitomised by Tony Blair’s praise for Mr Mubarak – “immensely courageous and a force for good” – which only showed how far out of the narrative loop he was.
The West has turned a blind eye to demands for democratic change for decades. Oil and Israel have been a potent brew in the Arab world for over 30 years.
It is ironic that two of the current bêtes noire of the US, Al-Jazeera and WikiLeaks, are two of the crucial precursors of the pan-Arab intifada which will inevitably lead to a much higher degree of democracy in the region.
The Arab world needs now to decide how to move rapidly to democratic governance. That must include a role for trade unions and centre-left groups, which seem to have been overlooked as outsiders press for economic reforms without balancing them with the necessary parallel social reforms.
It will be interesting to observe developments outside the Arab world where other forms of repressive regimes exist. The ruling theocratic clique in Tehran is said to be sleeping less easily these days.
