Yet this focus by the international heavyweights is not guided by humanitarian zeal. It is about self-interest from a geo-strategic perspective. In short, it is realpolitik.
The popular revolt by a section of the Libyan people against the 40-year rule of Muammar Gaddafi has resulted in the governments of the United States, Russia, Britain and France considering the best possible outcomes of the conflict for themselves – which they measure in economic, political and military terms.
It is interesting, in passing, to note that the word “revolution” has rarely been used; it is a revolt against the personal rule of Colonel Gaddafi and not against patrimonialism – a system of government in place not just in Libya but, indeed, across most of the Arab world.
As with most conflicts, there will be external, as well as internal, winners and losers. It appears that the tide in Libya has turned again and, with the rebels retreating and forces loyal to Gaddafi retaking towns they had lost, it is looking increasingly likely that Gaddafi’s reign will continue, at least for the foreseeable future.
The Libyan leader is unlikely to forget how the Americans, British and French supported the rebels – even though intelligence was scarce and Washington, London and Paris knew very little about the people behind the revolt.
This has parallels with the West’s support – with money and weapons – for the mujahedeen fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
With relations between Gaddafi-controlled Libya and the West soured, Russia is keen to move in and fill the political vacuum. The Kremlin’s approach to the crisis has been to argue against military intervention and a no-fly zone while, at the same time, imposing its own arms embargo on Libya, in order not to be seen to be prolonging the conflict.
In Soviet times, relations between Moscow and Tripoli were warm – the Russians provided military and intelligence training to the Libyan government and, in return, the Libyans provided the Russians with intelligence on the Middle East.
If Gaddafi does, as now seems likely, stay in power, then Russia will have a golden opportunity to reassert itself in Libya and secure lucrative oil, gas and defence contracts in the country.
If this happens, then the Russian navy could use Libyan ports to dock, increasing the Russian naval presence and influence in the Mediterranean. Russian intelligence would welcome the chance to again use Libya as a listening post on Egypt, North Africa and Israel.
