Government ministers said the fact that the number of people claiming out-of-work benefits fell by 10,200 between January and February to 1.44 million was cause for optimism and a sign that the economy is improving, with better hiring prospects.
But the figures do not, and cannot, take account of the 330,000 planned public sector job losses that have yet to be fully felt.
ONS figures showed 132,000 public sector workers lost their jobs between the final quarter of 2009 and the end of last year. The biggest cuts came in local government, where 66,000 workers were laid off over the year, compared with 45,000 in central government.
In the final quarter of 2010, employment in the private sector picked up by 77,000, against a 45,000 decrease in the number of people in public sector jobs but there are widespread concerns that in the current economic climate – and the depressed retail environment – the private sector will not come even close to matching public sector job losses.
Conservative forecasts put the jobless total rising to 2.75 million people by the middle of next year.
Young people are finding it harder and harder to get full-time, paying jobs: 974,000 16-to-24 year olds are out of work – a jump of 30,000 on the previous quarter and the highest number since 1992 – as older workers defer retirement because they cannot afford it.
The number of over-65-year-olds staying on in work increased to a record high of 900,000, according to the ONS – a jump of 56,000.
TUC general secretary Brendan Barber, ahead of the rally in London on March 26, invoked the threat of widespread, co-ordinated protests and strikes against Government policies when he said the “phoney war is over”.
Unions had to wait until until now – until the Government’s cuts had become a reality – for people to appreciate their impact.
“It was important for the cuts to be real, for there to be a much wider appreciation of what the reality was going to be. Back in the autumn last year, this was a largely theoretical debate. Now, the phoney war is over,” he said of welfare cuts, local government redundancies and pension changes.
Mr Barber said the union response would range from industrial action and strikes to civil disobedience, such as sit-down protests and occupations. Unions have reportedly compiled a £35 million “war chest” to support strikers.
