The medieval German town of Konstanz is steeped in history. It is the spot where the religious reformer Jan Hus was burned at the stake some 600 years ago. One of a string of fiercely contested seats in the forthcoming elections for control of the Baden Wurttenberg region, it is now one of the places where the German Social Democrats (SPD) are hoping to skewer Chancellor Angela Merkel and administer the coup de grace to her centre-right coalition government.
The latest opinion polls suggest that an alliance of the SPD and Green Party could just take control in a region dominated by the right since the Second World War. This would be the equivalent of the Tories in Britain losing control of the Home Counties. There would be profound consequences in Berlin. Merkel already presides over an increasingly fractious coalition in the Bundestag (Lower House).
She would further lose control over the Bundesrat (Upper House) where the regional representatives meet. At best, she could then continue as a lame duck premier. At worst, she would be forced to call an early general election. Whatever the result, the confidence of her Christian Democratic Union is being shaken.
Unsurprisingly, the SPD team is naturally buoyant. After a crushing defeat in 2009, the Social Democrats are back in the game. “We have worked hard to get back in touch with the voters and restore our credibility”, says local SPD organiser Winfred Kopp. “We wrote our manifesto after over 140 open meetings with community groups across the region. We wanted people to know that we are listening to them.”
He contrasts the open, transparent approach of the SPD with what he describes as the “arrogance” of the CDU, who many believe have lost touch with the electorate. The local economy is booming, but because real wages have stagnated for many workers, the CDU is making little headway in claiming the credit and the red-green opposition has been able to shift the debate onto other issues.
The key example of this is the remodelling of the rail link to the regional capital, Stuttgart. The project – Stuttgart 21 – is as controversial as it is expensive. Estimates of cost grow almost daily and the final bill is expected to be more than a billion euro). With Merkel’s personal backing, local CDU leaders have ploughed on with the project in the teeth of fierce opposition from those who believe that the money could be better spent.
There is also deep unease about education – a key regional competence. Baden Wurttenburg enforces a strict system of selection at the age of 11, with the most able children creamed off to attend the elite Gymnasium schools. Many now question whether this divisive approach is still fit for purpose. There is already a serious skills shortage in the local engineering industry and an increasing feeling that the current system benefits the few not the many – and is failing. The Social Democrats have made education reform the centrepiece of their campaign. When Kopp is asked what the main change will be if the SPD wins, he gives a one-word reply: “Education”.
In environmentally-conscious Germany, voters are also deeply uneasy about the CDU policy of prolonging the life of many outdated nuclear power reactors, one of which is in the centre of Baden Wurttenburg. The tragic events in Japan have heightened fears and suddenly propelled the issue up the campaign agenda. Merkel is now back-pedaling furiously by ordering a national review of nuclear energy. But it may be too late. The strong Baden Wurttenburg Green Party, which would be a natural SPD ally in any future regional or national coalition, looks set for a substantial increase in its vote. The political shockwaves from the Japanese earthquake may yet be felt in Germany.
