The elections on May 9were the first electoral test for Ed Miliband and the first gauge of how well Labour is bouncing back from its worst general election performance in a generation. While the party won more than 800 council seats and gained control of 26 councils, analysing the historical data on local government results shows that there is still a long way for Labour to go if it hopes to win the next general election.
Most local elections are usually summarised by the government of the day suffering heavy losses. This year was no different, with the focus on the Liberal Democrats’ dismal performance. However, the key point for Labour is that a party moving from opposition into power usually needs to have secured more than 40 per cent of councillors and councils a year before a general election. This is true in every case since the 1972 Local Government Act for councillors and all but the February 1974 general election for councils.
While there are difficulties in comparing local and national elections, local results follow the national electoral cycle with local popularity highest when a party is moving into power and falling thereafter. However, focusing on a government’s performance can sometimes be misleading when predicting changes in governments. For example, a year before the 1979 general election, the Conservatives took 50 per cent of councillors and 54 per cent of parliamentary seats, yet in 1991 they held just 33 per cent of council seats and won 53 per cent of parliamentary seats. During this period (which is often incorrectly seen as a time when Labour failed to win national support on the back of local election successes), Labour flatlined, having 35 per cent of councillors from 1981 to 1989. In 1991, Labour increased its share of councillors to 37 per cent, but its real breakthrough did not come until 1995.
The 2011 local elections saw Labour increase its tally of councillors and councils. However, the party still has only 27 per cent of councillors and 20 per cent of councils nationally. While this is a positive step, there is clearly much more to be done over the coming years to reach the 40 per cent mark.
To reach this mark, Labour has to start to win seats from the Conservatives – this year’s successes were almost exclusively at the Lib Dems’ expense. While talk of a “progressive alliance” may dominate some circles on the left, the loss of the referendum on the alternative vote and the local election results (which resulted in more councils controlled by either Labour or the Conservatives since 1973) weaken its case – or at least its chances. If, as it appears, we are heading back to two-party politics, Labour may be able make more gains from the Lib Dems, but it will be almost be impossible to reach the 40 per cent threshold in councillors without making headway against the Tories.
If Labour is to regain power, history suggests it will need to win at least 82 more councils and somewhere around 2,650 more councillors. The May 2012 local elections will be the next test for Labour on the road to the historically important 40 per cent milestone.
Paul Hunter is head of research at the Smith Institute and author of Reading the Local Runes: What the 2011 Council Elections Suggest for the Next General Election, available from the Smith Institute’s website
