A new height in farce was reached in Belgium this month as the man assigned with the daunting task of forming a new government, Socialist Elio Di Rupo, was forced into medical surgery on his vocal cords. The country’s leading negotiator was left literally voiceless.
The recovering Di Rupo has single-handedly become an unfortunate metaphor for a country which held elections on June 13 2010 and will this month become the first ever democratic state to traverse a full year without an elected government, surpassing the previous world record held by Iraq several months ago.
Silent negotiations held through the medium of mime could bring a welcome fresh perspective, considering the key divisions are on linguistic grounds between the French-speaking Walloons based in the south of the country and the Dutch-speaking Flemish based in the north.
The two main winners of the 2010 elections were the Flemish nationalist party, the N-VA, with 27 seats in the 150-seat house and the French-speaking Socialist Party (PS) with 26 seats. The gulf between those parties and the myriad of smaller Christian Democrat, Green and liberal groupings remains a vast one.
The N-VA and its leader, Bart De Wever, complain they are subsidising less affluent Wallonia, where unemployment is double that of Flanders.
Meanwhile, Waloonian parties seek to maintain the Belgian union but demand fiscal transfers from their richer co-nationals. In a scenario reminiscent of Jerusalem, both sides eye up the golden goose of Brussels, the bilingual capital city. Prospects for the middle ground seem slim, considering the very first article of the N-VA party rulebook states that the party strives for an independent Flanders, leading many to suggest that the current impasse plays
directly into its hands.
The king, who holds a formal role to help the efforts to form a government, is unwilling to countenance the idea of another set of elections, presumably fearing the outcome would be more of the same, or – even worse for him and the royal family – increased polarisation.
Earlier this year, the government of the United States was threatened with shutdown. President Barack Obama’s administration stood on the precipice as budget negotiations failed to make headway. The prospect of life without a federal government seemed bleak: civil servants forced to avoid work in all government agencies and to hand back their blackberries, everything from social services to national parks on notice of shutdown and a threat that even US troops serving abroad would not be paid on time.
The apocalyptic nature of governmental shutdown does not apply to Belgium. On the streets of Brussels, the most noticeable thing is the lack of difference that not having a formal government has made. In fact, many Belgians and curious ex-pats based in the many European Union and international institutions seem to think that all is going particularly well, as a caretaker Government from before the 2010 elections makes quiet progress with issue-by-issue support of the parliament.
In the past 12 months, the caretaker administration has managed a successful EU presidency and passed more than 50 pieces of legislation, including an ambitious debt reduction budget for 2011. Astonishingly, the caretaker administration has also taken a step on which many fully-mandated governments would hesitate, having committed Belgian fighter jets and pilots to the military operation in Libya.
So with a population seemingly liberated by Henry David Thoreau’s mantra “that government is best which governs least” and public protests of up to 50,000 people proving colourful but ineffective, what will drive the issue to a tipping point and where might a solution lie?
Rolling broadcast news programmes desperate for a headline might be tempted to that say Belgium is on the brink of collapse. A failed state at the heart of Europe makes good copy for Eurosceptics, but is an over-simplification in a land where, even among the more prosperous Dutch-speaking majority, dispatching Belgium to its pre-1830 oblivion would not garner majority support.
At a recent sell-out Euro 2012 qualifying game featuring the rising stars of the Belgian national soccer team in Brussels’ King Baudouin Stadium, it was evident is that there is still a strong connection and identity with the concept of Belgium. French-speaking and Flemish-speaking fans thronged the stadium on a weekday evening, proudly displaying banners and shirts, and chanting loudly. Belgium is still loved, even though public displays of affection tend to be restricted to the sporting arena.
It may not be people power but international economic markets which bring Belgium’s squabbling politicians back to hard reality. International credit rating agencies are preparing to call the country’s bluff. Belgium has long been hurt by high debt, standing at 96.8 per cent of gross domestic product last year, the third highest in the EU after Greece and Italy. International financial commentators have already dubbed Belgium “the Greece of the north”.
On May 23, credit rating agency Fitch announced that it had put the country on negative watch for reasons rooted in the political crisis. Standard & Poor’s are due to review Belgium’s AA+ ranking in their new ratings. The national credit rating is now on the line.
Talk of Belgian “Balkanisation” raise uncomfortable questions about how public debt would be serviced. So although the rubbish is still being collected and Belgian F15s patrol the skies over Benghazi, the impact of 2010’s inert elections are only now threatening to bite.
There is also the issue of democratic legitimacy, which cannot be ignored. Voting is compulsory in Belgium, but it seems governing is not. Despite having made their choice, the voters are still being led by a government which was democratically rejected 12 months ago.
Belgium is a land of many parliaments. There are assorted community, regional, federal and international parliaments based in Brussels, which between them deliver necessary services, allied with 19 semi-autonomous councils or communes in the capital. The political classes are losing any semblance of public credibility. The question of whether any of them could arrange a social event in one of Belgium’s many famous breweries is aksed regularly.
Compared with all this, the few days it took to form Britain’s governing coalition seem miraculous. With Di Rupo’s vocal cords due to be back in action shortly, those involved in the next “last gasp” attempt at negotiations will at least be back on speaking terms.
Di Rupo has said the focus must be on the economy with more divisive regional issues being sidelined for the sake of reaching agreement. The growing pressure from the markets may mean he could now meet with some measure of success. However with regional economic disparities and linguistic rivalries stronger than ever, any coalition government could not be certain of surviving until the next formal set of federal elections, scheduled for the summer of 2014.
Like Di Rupo’s vocal cords, Belgium in the longer term may need more than just a plaster and perhaps surgical intervention.
