One of the abiding puzzles of American politics is the ease with which ordinary voters can be conned into voting in favour of things that are directly and demonstrably against their interests.
True, the same can be said to a lesser extent about British politics. But at least in this country the right-wing politicians achieve their ends by the devious expedient of lying about their real intentions, as with the National Health Service. They habitually tell the voters the NHS is safe in their hands, before setting about it with an axe as soon as they get into office. They know they couldn’t win an election if they told the truth.
By contrast, America’s right-wingers are disarmingly frank. Instead of lying, they tell the absolute truth about their intentions. But they accompany it with a massive campaign to persuade the voters that what is manifestly good for them – such as free healthcare or decent unemployment benefit – is actually bad for them. They are told that such things will rot their moral fibre and undermine the spirit of enterprise which is the foundation of America’s greatness. And, with the help of Rupert Murdoch’s ghastly Fox News, it works – as Barack Obama discovered when he was forced by a right-wing onslaught to abandon the promise he made in his 2008 presidential campaign to introduce a healthcare system.
A good deal of dishonesty is deployed during these campaigns. Thus, grotesque lies were told about the workings of the NHS during Obama’s rearguard action to save his modest project last year. And even more lurid lies have been told by the Tea Party and its Republican allies in the current battle over the federal budget deficit. But my overall argument remains valid: no one is left in any doubt about the Tea Party’s intentions. They have elevated the axe into a symbol in modern American politics which is almost as powerful as the Christian cross.
Alas, in the weird game of global economic chicken played out in Washington, it seems to have been Obama and the Democrats who blinked first. As a result, the world has probably been saved from a financial crisis even more frightening than that precipitated by the banking crisis of two years ago, but at the appalling price of inflicting federal spending cuts so deep that there seems little hope that the United States economy will return to growth in the foreseeable future. Japanese-style stagnation is probably the best we can hope for. That will have profound consequences for the rest of the world, and particularly for a Britain ruled by George Osborne at the Treasury and (in an economically subsidiary role) David Cameron at Number 10. Why? Because Osborne is probably the British politician closest to America’s Republican right. In general terms, he leaves no one in much doubt about his axe-wielding intentions. Yes, he tells whoppers from time to time. But you know more or less what he is about, because he is standing there with the bloodstained axe in his hands.
So the question is, how will he respond to what is happening in Washington and Wall Street? The problem here is that even a Treasury headed by John Maynard Keynes would find it hard to do much that would protect the relatively small British economy from the icy winds that may soon be blowing across the Atlantic. But Osborne is no Keynesian. Worse, he actually seems to believe some of the preposterous rubbish spouted by the Republican right. He seems to think the best way to deal with a recession is to cut spending – in other words, the best way to counter a deficiency of demand is to cut that demand still further. That was already a crackpot approach, even before the events in Washington over the weekend. Even the International Monetary Fund – whose members used to have the virtues of austerity embroidered on their pillowcases – seem to have changed their minds at last. But now, with a double-dip US recession looming as a real possibility, such pre-Keynesian orthodoxy is a recipe for economic disaster.
This is a depressing prospect, especially for those of us on the left who have no handle on events and no hope of getting one until a general election which may be almost four years away. It is all the more depressing against the background of Andrew Lansley’s onslaught on the NHS and Michael Gove’s attack on the state education system. Even if Labour wins the next election, Ed Miliband may inherit little more than the detritus of a train wreck.
There is one small light shining amid the gloom – the restoration of Vince Cable as a significant figure in the coalition Cabinet. Hailing this transformation, The Independent headlined its article “From hero to zero and back again”, which is just about right. Thanks to the evisceration of Murdoch’s News International – largely, let it be acknowledged, by The Guardian’s dogged investigative reporting – “Saint Vince” is restored to full operational mode. That may prove crucial in the coming year or so. Not, I hasten to add, because I think he is capable of constructing a Cabinet majority against Osborne all on his own – that seems unlikely. No, because he seems the one man with the guts and public presence to lead a Liberal Democrat walkout from the coalition and thus precipitate a dissolution of parliament. It is a slim hope, but we must do our best to help it along
