It is a useful rule of thumb in politics – and often in matters of art and culture, too – that when the great and the good are in wholesale agreement about some big issue of the day, they are usually wrong. An outstanding example of this phenomenon – which has become known as “received wisdom” – has been attitudes to the European Union and the European single currency over the past half-century or so.
In the early stages, pretty well the whole of Fleet Street, including The Times, The Guardian and the Daily Mail, were passionate supporters of British membership of the EU. Almost the sole exception was the Daily Express, whose proprietor, Lord Beaverbrook, preferred dealing with what he called “the Empire” to mixing with those pesky continentals.
When Harold Wilson’s Government belatedly granted the British people a referendum in 1975 on whether we wanted to stay in what was then known as the European Common Market, those of us who backed the “No” campaign were reviled and ridiculed by the entire British establishment as dangerous nutcases. Even Margaret Thatcher joined forces with Ted Heath to persuade the country to stay in. They won.
When the subject of monetary integration came to the fore, much the same consensus formed up behind that idea, too, until its ignominious collapse under John Major. Then the great and the good latched on to the idea of the euro, with Tony Blair leading the field in its support. We can thank the famous grumpiness of Gordon Brown for saving us from that disaster. But for Gordon’s much-mocked “five conditions”, New Labour would have had us in.
But now, behold, all this has changed. The great and the good have reconstructed their consensus, and have emerged facing in exactly the opposite direction. The Times, the Mail and the rest now want a re-negotiation of our terms of EU membership so radical – indeed, impossibly so – that it amounts to coming out. If past form is anything to go by, they are just as likely to be proved wrong this time as they were last time.
Happily, there are some fringe members of the political and economic establishment who have never followed the received wisdom, who make up their own minds and doggedly proclaim it.
One such is Sam Brittan, long standing columnist of the Financial Times and elder (and wiser) brother of Leon Brittan, one of Thatcher’s top ministers until he fell out of favour.
Last week, the admirable Sam turned his searchlight mind onto the Greek crisis, and came up with a riveting conclusion: Had he been a Greek, he declared, he would have voted “no” in the referendum proposed (and since withdrawn) by Prime Minister George Papandreou.
Although I admire him enormously, I can’t say I have always agreed with Brittan in the past; whatever else he is, he is certainly not a socialist. But I confess that on this occasion I raised a noisy cheer in my empty kitchen as I read his endorsement of the rights of the ordinary Greek people. For the outstanding feature of the present euro crisis is that the Greek citizenry have been treated as non-persons by the horrible, ill-named Angela Merkel, the equally horrible Nicolas Sarkozy and an assortment of unelected European bureaucrats. For all the attention that has been paid to their views or interests, they could have been helots in ancient Sparta.
But the truth about the Greek crisis is that the Germans and the French, together with their bankers, were just as responsible for what has happened as the then Greek government. Berlin and Paris knew perfectly well that Greece was cooking its books in order to meet the conditions for entry into the single currency.
And, as it happens, everyone knew the same was going on in Italy. Neither country was really fit to join the euro, but such was the empire-building passion of the eurozone enthusiasts that they were prepared to take a punt on it turning out “all right on the night”. So they ignored the facts in front of their noses, lost their hopeless bet and are now trying to make the Greek people pay the lion’s share of their losses.
The so-called Greek “bailout” put together by Merkel and Sarkozy is really not a bailout of Greece at all, but a bailout of the banks – mainly French and German – which were stupid enough to lend Greece far more than they could ever be expected to pay back. True, it wouldn’t be nice if those banks were now to collapse as a result of a Greek debt default. But Merkel and Sarkozy should bail the banks out directly, instead of trying to pretend that they are being generous to a bunch of feckless Greeks.
Any fool can see that, if Greece is forced to tighten the financial screw on its economy and its people still further, then the only certain outcome is that
the country will plunge into an ever deeper recession, with many Greeks literally starving. Revolution could easily follow, either left-wing or (more likely) right-wing led. Is this what Merkel and Sarkozy want? I hardly think so. But if they wish to avert such a cataclysm they will have to change course pretty damn quick. Maybe now that these two right-wingers have managed to get rid of the socialist Papandreou they will be more inclined to be nice to his successor. But I shan’t be betting on it.
